Tag Archives: finance

The 5/11/24 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The status of the daily cycle is not clear.

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 17, which was early for a DCL to form. But the bullish reversal off support from the 50 day MA could have triggered a DCL to form. The dollar formed a swing low but was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Thursday. Any bearish follow through will likely extend the daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.   A close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 17 as an early DCL.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through into Friday.

The new high on day 15 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA.  Stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 5/04/24 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Thursday and delivered bearish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 17 for the daily cycle, which is early to expect a DCL to form. However, the dollar found support from the rising 50 day MA and formed a bullish reversal — easing the parameters for forming a swing low. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band and closes back above the 10 day MA, that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 17 as an early DCL. A break above 105.25 will form a swing low.

Stocks

Stocks regained the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday, turning the 10 day MA higher.

Stocks ran into resistance at the 50 day MA on Friday. A close above the 50 day MA will shift the odds that stocks are in a new intermediate cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Are the Bulls Ready To Run ?

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Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday confirming day 72 as the DCL. Stocks are now running into resistance at the 50 day MA. The decline into the day 72 DCL caused the 10 day MA to decline sharply, so stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before it can turn higher. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks printed their lowest point on week 25, placing them in their timing band for an ICL.  Stocks should turn the 10 week MA lower in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline — but that may not happen.  In The Weekend Report I discuss an early signal that indicates the ICL has been set. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 4/20/24 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The dollar is in the process consolidating below the 106.25 level.

The dollar did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower at the day 24 low, so the status of the daily cycle is not clear.  The dollar is still stretched above the 10 day MA. A daily cycle decline will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar is in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of consolidation would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 24 as the DCL.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bearish follow through on into Friday.

Stocks typically print a daily cycle low every 35 to 45 days. So at 72 days, stocks are overdue for a daily cycle low.  Stocks broke below the March low and are in the process of seeking out their ICL. Due to the extended daily cycle decline, stocks may not need another daily cycle to complete its ICL.  Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

 

The 02/03/24 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The dollar delivered a bullish surprise on Friday.

The unexpected strong jobs number, 350000 new jobs added, caused the dollar to find support at the 50 day MA and rocket higher.  The new high on day 25 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation.  The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  Breaking bullishly out of consolidation indicates a continuation of its daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal. 

Stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing low on Friday.

Friday was day 19.  The new high on day 19 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation.  This aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend.  Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of its daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal. We should note that stocks are now getting stretched above the 10 day MA and approaching the 5000 level, which could trigger a take profit event.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 01/06/24 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar 

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

The dollar is now caught in between the 10 day MA and the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA. Rejection here and a close below the 10 day MA will send the dollar into a left translated daily cycle decline.  The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend.  The dollar a close back below the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily downtrend and signal a cycle band sell signal.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

Stocks continued lower this week, printing its lowest point on Friday. Friday was day 47, placing stocks late in their timing band for a DCL to form. Stocks should retrace to at least the 38% Fib level in order to complete their DCL. However, RSI 05 delivered a bullish crossover on Friday — suggesting that Friday was the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4721.49 will form a swing low. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

2023 Buy/Sell Indicator Results

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One of the strengths of cycle analysis is identifying cycle bottoms. Identifying tops is a bit more challenging, depending if a cycle is forming as a left or right translated cycle. So I began looking for a way to help identify equity cycle tops. Through much trial and error I developed the FAS Buy/Sell Indicator.
The Buy/Sell Indicator has out performed the S&P for the past 6 years. Due to the success of the FAS Buy/Sell Indicator, I have added the following in 2023:

  • The GDX Buy/Sell Indicator
  • GBTC Buy/Sell Indicator

Below is a summary of results for all 3 Buy/Sell Indicators:

This link will take you to the individual results for all 3 Buy/Sell Indicators.

The Buy/Sell Indicators is available to subscribers to the Weekend Report.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription, along with the Special Report Report – The Bullish And Bearish Case for Stocks, for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of BTC, DAX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary Buy/Sell Indicators for GDX & FAS & GBTC.

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis. Click here for the report and trial subscription.

The 12/30/23 Weekend Report Preview

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Dollar

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation the previous Friday to extend the daily cycle decline.  

Breaking bearishly out of consolidation resulted in only a 3 day bloodbath phase with the dollar forming a bullish reversal on Thursday. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday to signal a new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label Thursday as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a swing high on Friday.

Friday was day 43 for the daily cycle. That places stocks deep in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 12/23/23 Weekend Report Preview

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Dollar

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Friday to extend the daily cycle decline.  

The status of the daily cycle is not clear. The dollar is either in the early part of its timing band for a DCL or deep in its timing band for a DCL. A bearish break out of consolidation should lead to a 5 – 7 day bloodbath phase. However the dollar formed a bullish reversal on Friday.  A swing low and close back in the consolidation zone would signal a new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label Friday as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday

Wednesday was day 37 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A break below 4697.82 will form a swing high.  Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Dollar Rebound – Update

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The dollar closed above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Thursday to signal that day 26 hosted the DCL. Then the dollar lost both of the 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Friday to cause the status of the daily cycle to be uncertain.

The dollar closed back above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Monday. The dollar delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday, turning the 10 day MA higher, to confirm that day 26 was the DCL. We will be watching the declining 50 day as the dollar rallies out of its DCL. How the dollar reacts to the declining 50 day MA will signal if the 3 year cycle low has been set or is it still out in front.

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