Tag Archives: investing

The 5/11/24 Weekend Report Preview

Posted on by
Reply

The Dollar

The status of the daily cycle is not clear.

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 17, which was early for a DCL to form. But the bullish reversal off support from the 50 day MA could have triggered a DCL to form. The dollar formed a swing low but was rejected by the declining 10 day MA on Thursday. Any bearish follow through will likely extend the daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.   A close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 17 as an early DCL.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bullish follow through into Friday.

The new high on day 15 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA.  Stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 5/04/24 Weekend Report Preview

Posted on by
Reply

The Dollar

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Thursday and delivered bearish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 17 for the daily cycle, which is early to expect a DCL to form. However, the dollar found support from the rising 50 day MA and formed a bullish reversal — easing the parameters for forming a swing low. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band and closes back above the 10 day MA, that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 17 as an early DCL. A break above 105.25 will form a swing low.

Stocks

Stocks regained the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday, turning the 10 day MA higher.

Stocks ran into resistance at the 50 day MA on Friday. A close above the 50 day MA will shift the odds that stocks are in a new intermediate cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Are the Bulls Ready To Run ?

Posted on by
Reply

Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday confirming day 72 as the DCL. Stocks are now running into resistance at the 50 day MA. The decline into the day 72 DCL caused the 10 day MA to decline sharply, so stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before it can turn higher. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks printed their lowest point on week 25, placing them in their timing band for an ICL.  Stocks should turn the 10 week MA lower in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline — but that may not happen.  In The Weekend Report I discuss an early signal that indicates the ICL has been set. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The 4/20/24 Weekend Report Preview

Posted on by
1

The Dollar

The dollar is in the process consolidating below the 106.25 level.

The dollar did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower at the day 24 low, so the status of the daily cycle is not clear.  The dollar is still stretched above the 10 day MA. A daily cycle decline will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar is in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of consolidation would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 24 as the DCL.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bearish follow through on into Friday.

Stocks typically print a daily cycle low every 35 to 45 days. So at 72 days, stocks are overdue for a daily cycle low.  Stocks broke below the March low and are in the process of seeking out their ICL. Due to the extended daily cycle decline, stocks may not need another daily cycle to complete its ICL.  Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

 

YieldMax Rotation Strategy

Posted on by
Reply

YieldMax™ ETFs seek to generate monthly income by pursuing options-based strategies on one or more underlying securities. YieldMax™ ETFs aim to harvest compelling yields from assets that are not typically associated with monthly income.

One primary risk is the potential opportunity cost, as the strategy may limit the ETF’s participation in significant market upswings. Another risk is that if the market experiences a sharp and sustained decline, the downside protection provided by the covered call strategy may not fully offset losses.

In other words there are trade offs. One trade off is limiting capital appreciation for consistent monthly dividends. Another trade off to consistent monthly dividends is exposure to full participation of drawdowns.

So let’s look at two of the YieldMax ETF’s: TSLY and CONY.

TSLY is the YieldMax ETF for Tesla, offering a 60.10% distribution rate according the YieldMax.

CONY is the YieldMax ETF for Coin, offering a 66.92% distribution rate according the YieldMax.

TSLY had a 59.84% drawdown so far.

While CONY experienced a 45.9% capital appreciation.

Similar distribution rates but wildly different performance leads us to the obvious conclusion of participating in the rallies and avoiding the drawdowns.

The above chart tracks TSLY performance verses the SPY. Using a bullish/bearish crossover of the 10/20 MA’s as the buy/sell signal limits the downside drawdowns while participating in the capital appreciation.

Similarly, using a bullish/bearish crossover of the 10/20 MA’s on CONYs performance verses the SPY allows for the participation of capital appreciation while limiting downside drawdowns.

Tesla – Cycle Analysis

Posted on by
Reply

Tesla printed its lowest point on day 35, placing it in its timing band for a DCL.

Tesla recovered the 10 day MA on Wednesday then delivered bullish follow through on Thursday to signal the new daily cycle. Tesla is currently in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

Tesla printed its lowest point on week 14, placing it in the early part of its timing band for a ICL. Tesla formed a weekly swing low to signal a new intermediate cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 week MA to label week 14 as the ICL. Tesla is currently in a weekly downtrend. Tesla will remain in its weekly downtrend unless it closes back above the upper weekly cycle band.

Over the past 11 years Tesla yearly cycle low formed, on average, every 11 months.

February is month 13, placing Tesla in its timing band for a YCL. Tesla is in the process of forming a bullish monthly reversal, which eases the parameters for forming a monthly swing low, A month swing low and close above the 10 month MA will signal the new yearly cycle.

Summary:

  • Tesla is in its timing band for a YCL
  • Tesla is in its timing band for an ICL and formed a weekly swing low.
  • Tesla has confirmed the new daily cycle.
  • A close above the triple convergence of the 10 week MA, the 50 week MA and the 200 week MA will confirm the new weekly cycle and signal the new yearly cycle.

I am offering a new service. I will do a cycle analysis of the stock/ETF of your choice for $25.

Included would be a daily, weekly, and yearly chart analysis of the stock/ETF of your choice including a summary and a cycle tracker. Also in included will be a 1 month trial subscription to the Weekend Report.

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.  And it also includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

In addition I post what I call my Weekend Updates

The Weekend Updates cover

  • BTC
  • The DAX
  • Copper
  • NATGAS
  • XLE
  • The proprietary Buy/Sell Indicator for GDX, FAS, and GBTC.

I  also post a mid-week update on Wednesday evenings which updates the daily charts from the Weekend Report.

For a cycle analysis of the stock/ETF of your choice and the 1 month trial subscription of the Weekend Report click here. Once you are signed up, I will respond with an email to inquire on the stock/ETF that you would like to have the cycle analysis preformed.

The 01/27/24 Weekend Report Preview

Posted on by
Reply

The Dollar

The dollar continues to crawl along the 200 day MA.

The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the 200 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.  A break above 103.61 will form a swing low.  But a rejection by the 200 day MA followed by a close below the 50 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. 

Stocks

Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday. The new high on day 14 begins to shift the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are stretched above the 10 day MA.  Stocks have begun to consolidate which will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  Stocks currently are in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of consolidation will indicate a continuation of the their daily uptrend unless and signal a cycle band buy signal. But a bearish break out of consolidation will signal the daily cycle decline. 

A possible catalyst for a breakout will be Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

The Joker In The Deck

Posted on by
Reply

Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

Stocks printed its lowest point on day 47, placing them late in their timing band for a DCL to form. Monday’s swing low closed back above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band — however RSI 05 is signaling a potential change in trend. 

During the advancing phase of the intermediate cycle RSI 05 becomes embedded in overbought. Any oversold condition will quickly reverse and to have RSI 05 embed back in the overbought condition. 

The decline into the day 47 DCL saw RSI 05 become oversold. That was quickly reversed, which aligns with being in the advancing phase of the intermediate cycle.  The concern I have is that while stocks broke out above the previous daily cycle high, RSI 05 did not get overbought. This is something to watch going forward. A quick bearish reversal would be an early warning to a change in trend.

What could cause this change in trend is the Joker in the deck. 

The dollar remains caught in between the 10 day MA and the converging 50 day MA & 200 day MA. I think that the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA is a critical area.  Rejection here and followed by a close below the 10 day MA will send the dollar into a left translated daily cycle decline – which would likely extend the intermediate cycle decline.  Under this scenario stocks would likely continue in their advancing phase of the intermediate cycle.

But close above the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA would shift the odds that December 28th was both an ICL and the yearly cycle low for the dollar.   Under this scenario the odds would shift to a left translated daily cycle formation for stocks.

The 01/06/24 Weekend Report Preview

Posted on by
Reply

The Dollar 

The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

The dollar is now caught in between the 10 day MA and the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA. Rejection here and a close below the 10 day MA will send the dollar into a left translated daily cycle decline.  The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend.  The dollar a close back below the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily downtrend and signal a cycle band sell signal.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday.

Stocks continued lower this week, printing its lowest point on Friday. Friday was day 47, placing stocks late in their timing band for a DCL to form. Stocks should retrace to at least the 38% Fib level in order to complete their DCL. However, RSI 05 delivered a bullish crossover on Friday — suggesting that Friday was the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4721.49 will form a swing low. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

2023 Buy/Sell Indicator Results

Posted on by
2

One of the strengths of cycle analysis is identifying cycle bottoms. Identifying tops is a bit more challenging, depending if a cycle is forming as a left or right translated cycle. So I began looking for a way to help identify equity cycle tops. Through much trial and error I developed the FAS Buy/Sell Indicator.
The Buy/Sell Indicator has out performed the S&P for the past 6 years. Due to the success of the FAS Buy/Sell Indicator, I have added the following in 2023:

  • The GDX Buy/Sell Indicator
  • GBTC Buy/Sell Indicator

Below is a summary of results for all 3 Buy/Sell Indicators:

This link will take you to the individual results for all 3 Buy/Sell Indicators.

The Buy/Sell Indicators is available to subscribers to the Weekend Report.

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription, along with the Special Report Report – The Bullish And Bearish Case for Stocks, for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of BTC, DAX, Copper, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary Buy/Sell Indicators for GDX & FAS & GBTC.

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis. Click here for the report and trial subscription.