Tag Archives: swing low

The 5/04/24 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Thursday and delivered bearish follow through on Friday.

Friday was day 17 for the daily cycle, which is early to expect a DCL to form. However, the dollar found support from the rising 50 day MA and formed a bullish reversal — easing the parameters for forming a swing low. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band and closes back above the 10 day MA, that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 17 as an early DCL. A break above 105.25 will form a swing low.

Stocks

Stocks regained the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered bullish follow through on Friday, turning the 10 day MA higher.

Stocks ran into resistance at the 50 day MA on Friday. A close above the 50 day MA will shift the odds that stocks are in a new intermediate cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

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Daily Cycle Low

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Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 72, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low has good odds of marking the DCL. We will use a close above the 10 day MA to label day 72 as the DCL.

We will also need to watch the 50 day MA. A close above the 50 day MA would shift the odds that the ICL has been set. But if stocks are rejected by the 50 day MA, that will indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline

Bitcoin Bottom?

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BTC formed a swing low.

BTC broke below the day 28 low overnight. Friday is day 30, placing BTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL.  BTC appears to have found support at the 61000 level and is in the process of forming a bullish reversal off the 6100. A close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 30 as an early DCL. BTC is currently in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks Due For A Bounce

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Stocks continued lower on Tuesday.

Stocks typically print a daily cycle low every 35 to 45 days. So at 69 days, stocks are overdue for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s narrow range day eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 5079.84 will form a swing low. Then a close above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report what stocks need to do to convince me that the pending rally is not going to be a Dead Cat Bounce.

Daily Cycle Low

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Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 65, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. Thursday’s swing low signals the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks can close back above the 10 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its tail uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.

However, I do have longer term concerns that I will cover in the Weekend Report. But here is a hint.

Change Of Behavior- Update

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Stocks signaled a change in behavior by closing below the 20 day MA on Thursday.

However, stocks did not deliver any bearish follow through on Friday.

Instead stocks rallied and closed back above the 20 day MA. Thursday was day 61 placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL.

Stocks are currently being contained by the 10 day MA. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 61 as the DCL.

I suspect that Smart Money will sell into the pending rally out of the DCL. I discuss why in the Weekend Report.

Was That It?

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Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday — which has me wondering if that was it?

Tuesday was day 59, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low.

Stocks did break the daily cycle trend line and the10 day MA has begun to dip lower –which are some of the criteria needed for a DCL to form. Stocks are currently in a strong daily uptrend. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 59 as the DCL.

Bitcoin Buy Signal

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Bitcoin formed a swing low on Thursday.

Bitcoin printed its lowest point on day 56, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL. Bitcoin closed above the 10 day MA on Sunday then delivered bullish follow through on Monday. BTC is currently in a daily uptrend.  Closing back above the 10 day MA indicates a continuation of its daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal.

The Dollar Formed A Swing Low

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The dollar formed a swing low on Monday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 50. That places it very deep in its timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low signals the new daily cycle. We will use a close above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA to label day 50 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.

Bitcoin Buy Signal

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BTC Delivered a buy signal on Monday.

BTC printed its lowest point on Friday, day 30, placing it in the early part of its timing band for a DCL.  BTC should turn the 10 day MA lower in order to complete its DCL. However BTC formed a swing low on Saturday then delivered bullish follow through on Monday. BTC is currently in a daily uptrend.  Forming a swing low and a closing back above the to day MA indicates a continuation of its daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal — so we will label day 30 as the DCL.