BTC formed a swing low.
BTC broke below the day 28 low overnight. Friday is day 30, placing BTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. BTC appears to have found support at the 61000 level and is in the process of forming a bullish reversal off the 6100. A close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 30 as an early DCL. BTC is currently in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.
BTC broke bullishly out of its triangle consolidation on Monday. However, it did not deliver bullish follow through on Tuesday.
BTC formed a swing high on Tuesday and was below the upper stem at the time of this post, negating Monday’s breakout. It is possible that BTC was backtesting the 10 day MA. With BTC is in a daily uptrend, a swing low and a close back above the upper stem would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. But if BTC delivers bearish follow through and closes below the lower stem, that would signal the daily cycle decline.
BTC is in the process of breaking bullishly out of its triangle consolidation.
BTC is currently in a daily uptrend. A close above the upper stem will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.
Bitcoin formed a swing low on Thursday.
Bitcoin printed its lowest point on day 56, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL. Bitcoin closed above the 10 day MA on Sunday then delivered bullish follow through on Monday. BTC is currently in a daily uptrend. Closing back above the 10 day MA indicates a continuation of its daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal.
BTC formed a swing low on Friday then delivered bullish follow through on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
It initially looked as if day 30 was the DCL. However, the dollar appears to be in the process of forming a DCL, which would be bearish for BTC. Also, there are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators along with BTC forming a slight reversal off the 64000 level which suggests that Wednesday was day 35 – placing it in its timing band for a DCL. BTC is now quite stretched above the 10 day MA. A daily cycle decline would help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. BTC is currently in a daily uptrend. BTC will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.
We discussed that BTC gave a buy signal on January 29th. BTC delivered bullish follow through on Thursday.
BTC had been consolidating around the 50 day MA — until Wednesday. BTC broke bullishly out of consolidation on Wednesday then delivered bullish follow through on Thursday. The new high on day 16 begins to shift the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. BTC closed above the upper daily cycle band. on Wednesday. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.
BTC printed its lowest point on day 43, placing it in its timing band for a DCL.
BTC formed a swing low on Wednesday then closed above the 10 day MA on Friday to signal day 43 as the DCL. BTC is in the process of delivering bullish follow through as its is breaking above the 50 day MA. In the Weekend Updates I discussed how this is not only a daily cycle low, but potentially the intermediate cycle low as well.
The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETF’s on Wednesday which began trading on Thursday. BTC responded on Thursday by forming a bearish reversal, possibly selling the news.
BTC has been volatile over the past 2 weeks causing the status of the daily cycle to not be clear. And the volatility continued on Thursday. Thursday’s bearish reversal calls into question if day 23 was an early DCL. The bearish divergence on the oscillators suggests that Thursday was day 30 for the daily cycle. If so, then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. While the status of the daily cycle is not clear, what is clear is that BTC is is currently in a daily uptrend. BTC will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.
BTC in the process of forming a triangle consolidation, which is causing our daily cycle count to be uncertain.
Tuesday was either day 43 for the daily cycle or day 16 of a new daily cycle. What is clear is that BTC is currently in a daily uptrend. A bullish break out of consolidation will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 27 as the DCL.
GBTC printed its lowest point last Tuesday, following the day 5 high. Tuesday was day 19, placing GBTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. GBTC formed a swing low last week, then delivered bullish follow through on Monday by closing above the 50 day MA to confirm that day 19 was the DCL.
And it appears that a larger degree, intermediate bottom has formed.
GBTC printed its lowest point on week 38, to place it in its timing band for an ICL. While a weekly swing low did form, GBTC did not deliver any bullish follow through as it was contained by the 10 week MA — until Monday.
On Monday, GBTC broke bullishly above the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA so will will label week 38 as the ICL. Currently, GBTC is in a weekly downtrend. But a close back above the upper weekly cycle band.will end the weekly downtrend and begin a new weekly uptrend.
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