Stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday.
Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the upper daily cycle band and closing back below the 10 day MA indicates a continuation of its daily downtrend and signals a cycle band sell signal.
Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday confirming day 72 as the DCL. Stocks are now running into resistance at the 50 day MA. The decline into the day 72 DCL caused the 10 day MA to decline sharply, so stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before it can turn higher. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks printed their lowest point on week 25, placing them in their timing band for an ICL. Stocks should turn the 10 week MA lower in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline — but that may not happen. In The Weekend Report I discuss an early signal that indicates the ICL has been set.
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The Dollar
The dollar is in the process consolidating below the 106.25 level.
The dollar did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower at the day 24 low, so the status of the daily cycle is not clear. The dollar is still stretched above the 10 day MA. A daily cycle decline will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar is in a daily uptrend. A bullish break out of consolidation would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 24 as the DCL.
Stocks
Stocks closed below the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bearish follow through on into Friday.
Stocks typically print a daily cycle low every 35 to 45 days. So at 72 days, stocks are overdue for a daily cycle low. Stocks broke below the March low and are in the process of seeking out their ICL. Due to the extended daily cycle decline, stocks may not need another daily cycle to complete its ICL. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
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BTC formed a swing low.
BTC broke below the day 28 low overnight. Friday is day 30, placing BTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. BTC appears to have found support at the 61000 level and is in the process of forming a bullish reversal off the 6100. A close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 30 as an early DCL. BTC is currently in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.
The dollar broke bullishly above the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA on Tuesday.
Breaking above these 2 important moving averages on its first try initially looked like a display of relative strength. If the dollar can manage to close above the upper daily cycle band that will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend. However the dollar is in the process of forming a rejection candle. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band and closes back below the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its daily downtrend and signal a cycle and sell signal. I plan to discuss the longer term intermediate and yearly cycle implications in the Weekend Report.
The dollar formed a swing low on Monday.
The dollar printed its lowest point on day 50. That places it very deep in its timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low signals the new daily cycle. We will use a close above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA to label day 50 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.
The Dollar
The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
The dollar is now caught in between the 10 day MA and the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA. Rejection here and a close below the 10 day MA will send the dollar into a left translated daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar a close back below the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily downtrend and signal a cycle band sell signal.
Stocks
Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
Stocks continued lower this week, printing its lowest point on Friday. Friday was day 47, placing stocks late in their timing band for a DCL to form. Stocks should retrace to at least the 38% Fib level in order to complete their DCL. However, RSI 05 delivered a bullish crossover on Friday — suggesting that Friday was the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4721.49 will form a swing low.
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Dollar
The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation the previous Friday to extend the daily cycle decline.
Breaking bearishly out of consolidation resulted in only a 3 day bloodbath phase with the dollar forming a bullish reversal on Thursday. The dollar then formed a swing low on Friday to signal a new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label Thursday as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks formed a swing high on Friday.
Friday was day 43 for the daily cycle. That places stocks deep in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
For subscribers click here.
Dollar
The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Friday to extend the daily cycle decline.
The status of the daily cycle is not clear. The dollar is either in the early part of its timing band for a DCL or deep in its timing band for a DCL. A bearish break out of consolidation should lead to a 5 – 7 day bloodbath phase. However the dollar formed a bullish reversal on Friday. A swing low and close back in the consolidation zone would signal a new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label Friday as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday
Wednesday was day 37 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A break below 4697.82 will form a swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
For subscribers click here.
The dollar ran into resistance at the 104 level and had been consolidating above the 200 day MA — until Wednesday.
The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday, closing below both the 10 day MA and the 200 day MA. The dollar then delivered bearish follow through on Thursday by closing below the previous daily cycle low. Closing below the previous DCL forms a failed a daily cycle and extend the intermediate cycle decline.
However, as I was proof reading my post, I realized that I overlooked the bullish divergence developing on the oscillators — which point to a different cycle count.
The bullish divergence on the oscillators indicate that day 26 was not the DCL ,which could make Thursday day 37 of a stretched daily cycle. So it is wise to be open to both possibilities. Regardless of the cycle count what is clear is that the dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
Cycle Trading 