Tag Archives: bearish follow through

The 4/20/24 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The dollar is in the process consolidating below the 106.25 level.

The dollar did not manage to turn the 10 day MA lower at the day 24 low, so the status of the daily cycle is not clear.  The dollar is still stretched above the 10 day MA. A daily cycle decline will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The dollar is in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of consolidation would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 24 as the DCL.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 50 day MA on Monday then delivered bearish follow through on into Friday.

Stocks typically print a daily cycle low every 35 to 45 days. So at 72 days, stocks are overdue for a daily cycle low.  Stocks broke below the March low and are in the process of seeking out their ICL. Due to the extended daily cycle decline, stocks may not need another daily cycle to complete its ICL.  Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

 

Change Of Behavior- Update

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Stocks signaled a change in behavior by closing below the 20 day MA on Thursday.

However, stocks did not deliver any bearish follow through on Friday.

Instead stocks rallied and closed back above the 20 day MA. Thursday was day 61 placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL.

Stocks are currently being contained by the 10 day MA. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 61 as the DCL.

I suspect that Smart Money will sell into the pending rally out of the DCL. I discuss why in the Weekend Report.

Daily Cycle Decline

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Stocks formed a swing high on Friday and delivered bearish follow through on Monday and Tuesday.

Stocks have not formed a recognizable DCL since late October. A close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stock should then go on to turn the 10 day MA lower and break below the trend line in order to complete the daily cycle decline.  Stocks are currently in a strong daily uptrend. They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks Form A Swing high

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The decline into the day 26 low did not turn the 10 day MA lower, causing the status of the daily cycle to not be clear.

Stocks broke bullishly out of consolidation on Friday.   However, stocks formed a swing high on Tuesday, negating Friday’s breakout.  Stocks closed back in the consolidation zone and also below the 10 day MA to signal that Tuesday was day 39 for the daily cycle.  That places stocks in their timing band of a DCL.  Any bearish follow through will signal the daily cycle decline.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Miner Interest

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The Miners are beginning to look interesting.

The Fed surprised the markets on Wednesday by holding rates steady. The Miners had been consolidating along the 10 day MA prior to Wednesday, but closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday. Any bearish follow through would have signaled the daily cycle decline. 

However, the Miners delivered a bullish surprise on Thursday by breaking out to a new daily cycle high. A close above the converging 200 day MA and 50 day MA could be a game changer for the Miners — which I plan to cover in the Weekend Report.

The 12/16/23 Weekend Report Preview

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Dollar

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday to close below both the 10 day MA and the 200 day MA. 

The dollar delivered bearish follow through on Thursday by closing convincingly below the day 26 low to cause a bit of uncertainty with our daily cycle count. Breaking below the day 26 low could indicate that Thursday was day 11 of a failed daily cycle.  But the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicate a continuation of the daily cycle decline, making Thursday day 37 of a stretched daily cycle. The dollar formed a bullish reversal on Friday, easing the parameters for forming a DCL.  A swing low and close above the day 26 breakdown level will signal a new daily cycle. A break above 102.42 will form a swing low.  The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks broke bullishly out of consolidation on the previous Friday and continued higher into Thursday.

Thursday was day 33 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle decline.  Stocks are beginning to get stretched above the 10 day MA. We need to keep in mind that breakouts that occur late in the daily cycle are often not sustained.  A swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. A break below 4704.69 will form a daily swing high. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Dollar Breaks Lower

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The dollar  ran into resistance at the 104 level and had been consolidating above the 200 day MA — until Wednesday.

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Wednesday, closing below both the 10 day MA and the 200 day MA. The dollar then delivered bearish follow through on Thursday by closing below the previous daily cycle low.  Closing below the previous DCL forms a failed a daily cycle and extend the intermediate cycle decline. 

However, as I was proof reading my post, I realized that I overlooked the bullish divergence developing on the oscillators — which point to a different cycle count.

The bullish divergence on the oscillators indicate that day 26 was not the DCL ,which could make Thursday day 37 of a stretched daily cycle. So it is wise to be open to both possibilities. Regardless of the cycle count what is clear is that the dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

The 11/18/23 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The Dollar formed a daily swing high on Monday.  The dollar then delivered a bearish follow through into Friday to signal the daily cycle decline. 

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 18, placing it in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. We will be watching the rising 200 day MA as a possible support for a DCL to form. A swing low and a close back above the 10 day MA will signal the DCL.  The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band. 

Stocks

Stocks gapped higher on Tuesday then consolidated Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA.  Stocks may need to continue to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

This week I am going to offer an early Black Friday Special.

The Likesmoney Black Friday Sale for New Subscribers

Black Friday Sale — get an extra month on the 3 month subscription – 4 months for $60 — click here.

Black Friday Sale — get an extra two months on the 6 month subscription – 8 months for $100 — click here.

Here is what is included in the Weekend Report Subscription

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, Copper, Natgas & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

Dollar Kiss Goodbye– Update

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On Monday we discussed with the dollar in a daily downtrend, Monday’s swing high and close below the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA indicates a continuation of its daily downtrend and signals a cycle band sell signal.

The dollar delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday.

The dollar was clearly rejected by the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA on Tuesday to close 1.35% down for the day, signaling the daily cycle decline. At 15 days the dollar should trend lower for another 2 – 3 weeks before printing its DCL. However,the previous daily cycle was rather stretched at 39 days and the dollar is currently very oversold. So it is possible to see a shortened daily cycle here, which would help to balance out the cycle counts. In the Weekend Report I plan to break down what this means for the weekly cycle, yearly cycle and the 3 year cycle. But I will give you a hint – its bearish.

This week I am going to offer an early Black Friday Special.

The Likesmoney Black Friday Sale for New Subscribers

Black Friday Sale — get an extra month on the 3 month subscription – 4 months for $60 — click here.

Black Friday Sale — get an extra two months on the 6 month subscription – 8 months for $100 — click here.

Here is what is included in the Weekend Report Subscription

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, Copper, Natgas & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

The 10/28/23 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing low on Wednesday the printed a higher high on Thursday so we will label day 39 as the DCL.

The dollar was a a bit stretched above the 10 day MA on Thursday and formed a swing high on Friday. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  If the dollar forms a swing low above the upper daily cycle band that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.  A break above 106.62 will form a daily swing low.  

Stocks

Stocks closed above the 200 day MA on Tuesday, but then formed a swing high on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s swing high negated Tuesday’s swing low.  Stocks went on to deliver bearish follow through into Friday.  Friday was day 18 of a failed daily cycle. Stocks could trend lower for another 2 – 3 weeks to be in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.  Stocks will remain in its daily downtrend unless they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.