Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Monday. We discussed on Saturday that close above the 50 day MA will shift the odds that stocks are in a new intermediate cycle.
Stocks also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also signals that the ICL has been set. — which I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report.
Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.
Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 72, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low has good odds of marking the DCL. We will use a close above the 10 day MA to label day 72 as the DCL.
We will also need to watch the 50 day MA. A close above the 50 day MA would shift the odds that the ICL has been set. But if stocks are rejected by the 50 day MA, that will indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline
The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday.
In The Mid-Week Update I discussed how Wednesday’s bearish reversal saw the dollar close back below the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA. This shifts the odds to a peak on day 8 — which indicates a left translated daily cycle formation.
Well the dollar reversed again on Thursday.
The dollar found support at the rising 10 day MA on Thursday and is in the process of breaking convincingly above the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA to negate Wednesdays bearish reversal. The dollar is in the process of also breaking above the upper daily cycle band. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a daily uptrend.
And this may have caused the Miners to peak.
The Miners formed a bearish reversal on Thursday in response to the dollar’s rally. A swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.
The dollar broke bullishly above the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA on Tuesday.
Breaking above these 2 important moving averages on its first try initially looked like a display of relative strength. If the dollar can manage to close above the upper daily cycle band that will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend. However the dollar is in the process of forming a rejection candle. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band and closes back below the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its daily downtrend and signal a cycle and sell signal. I plan to discuss the longer term intermediate and yearly cycle implications in the Weekend Report.
The Dollar
The dollar delivered a bullish surprise on Friday.
The unexpected strong jobs number, 350000 new jobs added, caused the dollar to find support at the 50 day MA and rocket higher. The new high on day 25 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. Breaking bullishly out of consolidation indicates a continuation of its daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal.
Stocks
Stocks formed a daily swing low on Friday.
Friday was day 19. The new high on day 19 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. This aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Forming a swing low above the upper daily cycle band indicates a continuation of its daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal. We should note that stocks are now getting stretched above the 10 day MA and approaching the 5000 level, which could trigger a take profit event.
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The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
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The Miners formed a daily swing low on Tuesday.
The Miners printed their lowest point on Monday, day 25. That places them in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. Tuesday ‘s swing low signals a new daily cycle. We will use a close above the 10 day MA to label day 25 as the DCL. Long positions can be entered using Tuesday’s low as the stop. Those wishing a higher probability set up could buy the close above both the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA.
Bonds formed a daily swing low on Monday.
Bonds printed their lowest point on Friday, day 60, placing them very deep in its timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low closed above the 50 day MA to signal the new daily cycle. We will use a close above the converging 200 day MA and 10 day MA to label day 60 as the DCL. Bonds are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.
The dollar has been consolidating in between the rising 10 day MA and the 200 day MA — until Tuesday.
Tuesday was day 12 and the dollar broke bullishly out of consolidation and above both the declining 50 day MA and the 200 day MA. The dollar also closed above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle and ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band also signals that the intermediate cycle low has been set, which could be a potential game changer for stocks. I plan to discuss this in detail in the Weekend Report.
The Dollar
The dollar closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
The dollar is now caught in between the 10 day MA and the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA. Rejection here and a close below the 10 day MA will send the dollar into a left translated daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar a close back below the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of its daily downtrend and signal a cycle band sell signal.
Stocks
Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
Stocks continued lower this week, printing its lowest point on Friday. Friday was day 47, placing stocks late in their timing band for a DCL to form. Stocks should retrace to at least the 38% Fib level in order to complete their DCL. However, RSI 05 delivered a bullish crossover on Friday — suggesting that Friday was the DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. A break above 4721.49 will form a swing low.
The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
For subscribers click here.
The dollar’s rally out of its recent DCL has stalled out at the 104 resistance level.
If the dollar manages to beak above the 104 resistance level we will need to watch the declining 50 day MA. How the dollar reacts to the declining 50 day MA will signal if the 3 year cycle low has been set or is it still out in front. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.
Cycle Trading 