The Miners have been forming a triangle consolidation, which is obscuring our daily cycle counts.
A break below the day 38 low of 32.20 would extend the daily cycle decline. However, the Miners are currently in a daily uptrend. A bullish break out of consolidation would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal – which would affirm day 38 as the DCL making Tuesday day 10 of the new daily cycle.
Stocks rallied on Thursday with a rate hike in the rear view mirror.
Stocks regained the 10 day MA on Thursday. Stocks should turn the 10 day MA higher as it rallies out of the recent DCL. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.
Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Friday confirming day 72 as the DCL. Stocks are now running into resistance at the 50 day MA. The decline into the day 72 DCL caused the 10 day MA to decline sharply, so stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before it can turn higher. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks printed their lowest point on week 25, placing them in their timing band for an ICL. Stocks should turn the 10 week MA lower in order to complete their intermediate cycle decline — but that may not happen. In The Weekend Report I discuss an early signal that indicates the ICL has been set.
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Stocks closed love the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 72, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing low on Monday, so closing above the 10 day MA signals day 72 as the DCL. The decline into the day 72 DCL did cause the 10 day MA to decline sharply, so stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to flatten out before it can turn higher.
It is still too early to determine day 72 was also the ICL or if more more DCL is needed to complete the intermediate cycle decline. However, stocks did deliver a bullish signal on Tuesday. Stocks closed above the 50 line on RSI 05 on Tuesday. If RSI 05 goes on to embed in overbought that would indicate that stocks are now in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle.
Stocks formed a swing low on Monday.
Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 72, placing them very deep in their timing band for a DCL. Monday’s swing low has good odds of marking the DCL. We will use a close above the 10 day MA to label day 72 as the DCL.
We will also need to watch the 50 day MA. A close above the 50 day MA would shift the odds that the ICL has been set. But if stocks are rejected by the 50 day MA, that will indicate a continuation of the intermediate cycle decline
BTC formed a swing low.
BTC broke below the day 28 low overnight. Friday is day 30, placing BTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. BTC appears to have found support at the 61000 level and is in the process of forming a bullish reversal off the 6100. A close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 30 as an early DCL. BTC is currently in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday.
Stocks printed their lowest point on Wednesday, day 65, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. Thursday’s swing low signals the new daily cycle. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks can close back above the 10 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its tail uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.
However, I do have longer term concerns that I will cover in the Weekend Report. But here is a hint.
Stocks signaled a change in behavior by closing below the 20 day MA on Thursday.
However, stocks did not deliver any bearish follow through on Friday.
Instead stocks rallied and closed back above the 20 day MA. Thursday was day 61 placing stocks very deep in their timing band for a DCL.
Stocks are currently being contained by the 10 day MA. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 61 as the DCL.
I suspect that Smart Money will sell into the pending rally out of the DCL. I discuss why in the Weekend Report.
Prior to Thursday …
Any dips down to the 20 day MA were bought (BTFD).
That changed on Thursday.
Stocks closed convincingly below the 20 day MA on Thursday. At 61 days that means that stocks are now seeking out their daily cycle low. We will be watching the rising 50 day MA for possible support for the DCL to form. With Thursday being day 61, stocks should form their daily cycle low over the next 3 to 5 days. I have concerns for the next daily cycle which I plan to discuss in the Weekend Report. Below is a hint of what I am thinking …
Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday — which has me wondering if that was it?
Tuesday was day 59, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low.
Stocks did break the daily cycle trend line and the10 day MA has begun to dip lower –which are some of the criteria needed for a DCL to form. Stocks are currently in a strong daily uptrend. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 59 as the DCL.
Cycle Trading 