BTC formed a swing low.
BTC broke below the day 28 low overnight. Friday is day 30, placing BTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. BTC appears to have found support at the 61000 level and is in the process of forming a bullish reversal off the 6100. A close back above the 10 day MA will have us label day 30 as an early DCL. BTC is currently in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday — which has me wondering if that was it?
Tuesday was day 59, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low.
Stocks did break the daily cycle trend line and the10 day MA has begun to dip lower –which are some of the criteria needed for a DCL to form. Stocks are currently in a strong daily uptrend. A swing low and close back above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would then label day 59 as the DCL.
Oil formed a bullish reversal on Monday.
Oil printed its lowest point on Monday, day 35, placing it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 73.28 will form a swing low. Then a close above the 50 day MA will signal the new daily cycle. Oil is currently in a daily uptrend. A close back above the 10 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.
Stocks printed another higher daily cycle high on Thursday.
Thursday was day 41, placing stocks late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. And one thing that could send stocks into their daily decline is a rallying dollar.
The dollar formed a bullish reversal on Thursday. The status of the daily cycle is not clear. The dollar is either in the early part of its timing band for a DCL or deep in its timing band for a DCL. A swing low will signal a new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label Thursday as the DCL.
In my special report, The Bullish And Bearish Case for Stocks I discuss how a rallying dollar can impact stocks.
This week I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription, along with the Special Report Report – The Bullish And Bearish Case for Stocks $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:
1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.
2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.
3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of BTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.
4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo
5) Frequent updates of my proprietary Buy/Sell Indicators for GDX & FAS & GBTC.
The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis. Click here for the report and trial subscription.
Dollar
The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Friday to extend the daily cycle decline.
The status of the daily cycle is not clear. The dollar is either in the early part of its timing band for a DCL or deep in its timing band for a DCL. A bearish break out of consolidation should lead to a 5 – 7 day bloodbath phase. However the dollar formed a bullish reversal on Friday. A swing low and close back in the consolidation zone would signal a new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label Friday as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday
Wednesday was day 37 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A break below 4697.82 will form a swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
For subscribers click here.
The Miners formed a bullish reversal on Thursday.
The Miners printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 18, which places them in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed their bullish reversal off support from the 200 day MA. The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend. If the Miners form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA that would indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. A break above 30.63 will form a swing low.
The dollar formed a daily swing low on Thursday.
After Tuesday’s big drop the dollar looked as if it was entering a bloodbath phase, but instead the dollar delivered a bullish surprise on Wednesday. The dollar formed a bullish reversal on Wednesday follow by forming a swing low on Thursday – signaling a possible early DCL.
The monthly chart shows that Tuesday’s decline caused the dollar to tag the 10 month MA – which caused the dollar to rally on Wednesday and form a swing low on Thursday to signal an early DCL. A close above the 10 day MA would have us label day 16 as an early DCL.
But despite this dollar strength, the Miners have managed to rally.
The Miners printed their lowest point on Friday, day 27, placing them in their timing band for a DCL. The Miners formed a swing low on Tuesday, closing above the 10 day MA. They delivered bullish follow through on Thursday by closing above the 50 day MA so we will label day 27 as the DCL. The Miners are currently in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end their daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.
The Miners formed a bullish reversal on Thursday.
The Miners became stretched above the 10 day MA on day 12. Profit taking saw the Miners retrace back to the 50 day MA. The Miners formed bullish reversal on the support from the 50 day MA on Thursday. The Miners are currently in a daily uptrend. If they form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band that will indicate a continuation of their daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. Break above 28.88 will form a swing low.
Stocks formed a bullish reversal on Monday.
Monday was day 25, placing stocks in the early past of its timing band for a daily cycle low. Monday’s bullish reversal managed to close above the August low. A swing low will signal then new daily cycle. There is the risk that the 10 day MA will send stocks to form a lower low. We will use a close above the 10 day MA to label day 25 as the DCL. Long positions can be entered on a swing low using Monday’s low as the stop.
The Dollar
The dollar formed a bullish reversal off support from the rising 10 day MA on. Thursday.
The dollar is approaching resistance at the 50 day MA. The dollar is still a bit stretched above the 10 day MA. If the day 17 DCL was also the ICL, then the dollar should break above the 50 day MA as it continues to rally out of its DCL. But if day 17 DCL was not the ICL, then we should see the dollar left translate and close back below the 10 day MA. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks printed a huge bearish candle on Thursday, closing below the 10 day MA.
Any bearish follow through would signal the daily cycle decline, however stocks rallied on Friday.
Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. A break above 4607.07 will indicate. a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal. But a break below 4528.58 will form a swing high and signal the daily cycle decline.
The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
For subscribers click here.
Cycle Trading 