Tag Archives: bearish reversal

Reversals

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The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday.

In The Mid-Week Update I discussed how Wednesday’s bearish reversal saw the dollar close back below the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA. This shifts the odds to a peak on day 8 — which indicates a left translated daily cycle formation.

Well the dollar reversed again on Thursday.

The dollar found support at the rising 10 day MA on Thursday and is in the process of breaking convincingly above the converging 50 day MA and 200 day MA to negate Wednesdays bearish reversal. The dollar is in the process of also breaking above the upper daily cycle band. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a daily uptrend.

And this may have caused the Miners to peak.

The Miners formed a bearish reversal on Thursday in response to the dollar’s rally. A swing high and close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.

Bearish Reversal

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Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Friday.

The big picture show us that stocks have not formed a recognizable DCL since late October.  Friday was day 43, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Friday’s bearish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 5117.50 will form a swing high. Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band. 

5000 Update – Take Profit

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Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Monday followed by a daily swing high on Tuesday.

Tuesday’s swing high saw stocks close below the 5000 level and the 10 day MA. Tuesday was day 26 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the important psychological 5000 level, along with closing below the 10 day MA, signals the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.  

Bitcoin: Sell The News

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The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETF’s on Wednesday which began trading on Thursday. BTC responded on Thursday by forming a bearish reversal, possibly selling the news.

BTC has been volatile over the past 2 weeks causing the status of the daily cycle to not be clear. And the volatility continued on Thursday.  Thursday’s bearish reversal calls into question if day 23 was an early DCL. The bearish divergence on the oscillators suggests that Thursday was day 30 for the daily cycle. If so, then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. While the status of the daily cycle is not clear, what is clear is that BTC is is currently in a daily uptrend.  BTC will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

The 12/23/23 Weekend Report Preview

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Dollar

The dollar broke bearishly out of consolidation on Friday to extend the daily cycle decline.  

The status of the daily cycle is not clear. The dollar is either in the early part of its timing band for a DCL or deep in its timing band for a DCL. A bearish break out of consolidation should lead to a 5 – 7 day bloodbath phase. However the dollar formed a bullish reversal on Friday.  A swing low and close back in the consolidation zone would signal a new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA to label Friday as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday

Wednesday was day 37 for the daily cycle. That places stocks in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. A break below 4697.82 will form a swing high.  Then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in its daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Gold Battle Line

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Gold closed at an all time high on Friday.

Gold broke higher on Monday, but then formed a bearish reversal on the day.

A swing high and break below the daily cycle trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. A peak on day 14 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation, which aligns with gold being in a daily uptrend.

A case can be made that day 26 was not a DCL, but a half cycle low, making Monday day 40 of a stretched daily cycle.

Regardless of the daily cycle count, there is a real battle going on at the previous all time high of 2089.20.

While gold may lose this battle and decline into a DCL, the next daily cycle is where gold could breakout and sustain a trending move.

The 10/07/23 Weekend Report Preview

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The Dollar

The dollar formed a daily swing high on Wednesday.

The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Thursday then formed a bearish reversal on Friday to signal the daily cycle decline.  Friday was day 27, placing the dollar in its timing band for a DCL.  The dollar should turn the 10 day MA lower as it seeks out its DCL.  Then a swing low and a close back above the 10 day MA will signal the new daily cycle.  The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks

Stocks formed a daily swing low on Friday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 31, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday’s swing low closed above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle.  Stocks should turn the 10 day MA higher as they rally out of their DCL.  Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.  They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band. 

The entire Weekend Report can be found at Likesmoney Subscription Services

The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles.
Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker

For subscribers click here.

Potential Failed Breakout

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Stocks formed a bearish reversal on Monday followed by a swing high on Tuesday.

The rally out of the day 30 low looked, in real time, as if stocks printed an early DCL. However, stocks did not deliver any bullish follow through this week. Instead of turning the 10 day MA higher, stocks lost the 10 day MA on Tuesday to close back below the breakout level. That, along with the bearish divergence on the oscillators, indicate that stocks did not complete their daily cycle decline.

Bitcoin Breakout

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GBTC had been consolidating for the past 3 weeks — until Monday.

GBTC broke bullishly out of consolidation on Monday. However it formed a bearish reversal on Tuesday. Tuesday was day 39, placing GBTC in its timing band for a DCL. Typically, breakouts that occur in the timing band of a daily cycle decline are not usually sustained and often any gains are given back. A swing high and close back in the consolidation zone would signal the daily cycle decline.

Daily Cycle Decline

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Stocks formed a bearish reversal and closed below the 10 day MA on Thursday.

Thursday was day 36, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks closed below the 10 day MA, turning it lower and also closed below the daily cycle trend line to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks should go on to break below the day 32 low of 4060.79 in order to c complete its daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.