GBTC printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.
Tuesday was day 49 for the daily cycle. That places GBTC deep in its timing band for a DCL. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A swing low and a close back above the 10 day MA will signal that day 49 hosted the DCL. Long positions could be entered on a swing low with stops being placed at the 50 day MA.
We looked at GBT last Tuesday. GBTC broke bullishly higher after consolidating for the prior 3 weeks. We discussed that while breakouts that occur in the timing band of a daily cycle decline are not usually sustained and often any gains are given back.
As it turns out, Tuesday was the daily cycle peak. After consolidating for 4 days, GBTC broke bearishly lower on Monday. GBTC broke below the daily cycle trend line to close below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. GBTC should go on to turn the 10 day MA lower as it seeks out its DCL. GBTC is currently in daily uptrend. GBTC will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.
GBTC had been consolidating for the past 3 weeks — until Monday.
GBTC broke bullishly out of consolidation on Monday. However it formed a bearish reversal on Tuesday. Tuesday was day 39, placing GBTC in its timing band for a DCL. Typically, breakouts that occur in the timing band of a daily cycle decline are not usually sustained and often any gains are given back. A swing high and close back in the consolidation zone would signal the daily cycle decline.
GBTC printed its lowest point last Tuesday, following the day 5 high. Tuesday was day 19, placing GBTC in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. GBTC formed a swing low last week, then delivered bullish follow through on Monday by closing above the 50 day MA to confirm that day 19 was the DCL.
And it appears that a larger degree, intermediate bottom has formed.
GBTC printed its lowest point on week 38, to place it in its timing band for an ICL. While a weekly swing low did form, GBTC did not deliver any bullish follow through as it was contained by the 10 week MA — until Monday.
On Monday, GBTC broke bullishly above the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA so will will label week 38 as the ICL. Currently, GBTC is in a weekly downtrend. But a close back above the upper weekly cycle band.will end the weekly downtrend and begin a new weekly uptrend.
GBTC is in a weekly uptrend that has been characterized by highs forming above the upper weekly cycle band and lows forming above the lower weekly cycle band.
Since peaking in February, GBTC has been forming a weekly triangle consolidation pattern.
GBTC is in the process of forming a bullish weekly reversal off of the 10 week MA and is breaking bullishly above the declining weekly trend line. The bullish break above the declining trend line indicates that GBTC will remain in its weekly uptrend and triggers a weekly cycle band buy signal.
Back on 10/15/20 we discussed that GBTC was beginning a new daily uptrend. And that if it formed a swing low that would be a cycle band buy signal. GBTC delivered its buy signal 4 days later.
GBTC delivered another buy signal on Monday.
GBTC formed a swing high on Wednesday then closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to confirm the daily cycle decline. Friday was day 41, placing GBTC deep in its timing band for a DCL. The decline retraced close to 50% fib level, which is certainly enough of a retracement for a DCL.
Since October 12th GBTC has been in a daily uptrend that has been characterized by highs occurring above the upper daily cycle and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. GBTC formed a swing low on Monday to signal a new daily cycle. Monday’s swing low formed above the lower daily cycle band to indicate that GBTC remains in its daily uptrend and triggers a cycle band buy signal. Stops can now be raised to Friday’s low.
GBTC closed above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band on Monday. Closing above the upper daily cycle band signals an end to the daily downtrend and the start of a new daily uptrend.
GBTC then drifted sideways for the next two days and lost the 50 day MA. On Thursday GBTC rallied and closed back above the 50 day MA and the upper daily cycle band. Since GBTC is in a daily uptrend, if it forms a swing low here that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. A break above 12.49 forms a swing low.
GBTC printed a bullish reversal on Tuesday.
Tuesday was day 27 for the daily GBTC cycle. That places it in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Tuesday’s bullish reversal eases the parameters for forming a swing low. A swing low and close above the February resistance level would have us label day 27 as the DCL. A break above 13.52 will form a swing low.
Since rallying out of the late July low, GBTC has been in a daily uptrend which has been characterized by highs forming above the upper daily cycle band and lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. If the swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then GBTC will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.
GBTC delivered a buy signal on Tuesday.
GBTC broke below the day 23 on Friday to extend its daily cycle decline. Friday was day 36, placing it in its timing band for its daily cycle low. Friday’s bullish reversal eased the parameters for forming a swing low. GBTC formed a swing low on Monday then delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday. GBTC closed above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA and the declining trend line on Tuesday to confirm the new daily cycle. GBTC is currently in a daily downtrend. But a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a daily uptrend.
GBTC is running into resistance
GBTC ran into resistance at the 12 level three weeks ago, during week 15. It formed a weekly swing high as it declined into a daily cycle low. Now as it has emerged from its DCL it is running into resistance again.
At 18 weeks, GBTC is nearing its timing band for an intermediate cycle decline. GBTC has reached an overbought level on the TSI and has delivered a bearish crossover on the weekly TSI. The last three times that GBTC delivered a bearish crossover on the weekly TSI at this level it resulted in an intermediate cycle decline.
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