Stocks became a bit stretched above the 10 day MA on Monday and formed a bearish reversal.
Stocks began Tuesday lower, forming a swing high. However, they rallied into the close to regain the 50 day MA. Stocks may need to crawl along the 50 day MA, which would help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. The bigger picture is that stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close above the upper daily cycle band. And no trending move will be able to be sustained until stocks can close above the declining 200 day MA.
Stocks broke above the 50 day MA early on Monday but sold off into the close — closing below the 50 day MA. This is concerning. Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. If stocks form a swing high below the lower daily cycle band that will indicate a continuation of the daily downtrend and signal a cycle band sell signal. And with a potential peak on day 10, that will set stocks up for a left translated daily cycle formation. Which makes it more likely that the 4 year cycle low is still ahead of us. The 4 year cycle low is something that I discuss in my special report, Canaries in the Coal Mine.
In the report we will:
Look at the history of bear markets and see that bear markets are actually part of a cyclical pattern for stocks.
See where we are in the current cycle.
Look at canaries in the coal mine.
Identify what will signal a new bull market.
This week, I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription, along with the Special Report: Canaries In The Coal Mine for $15. Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:
1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.
2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.
3) The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.
4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo
5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator
The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis. Click here for the report and trial subscription.
The dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA to signal that day 31 was the DCL.
After delivering bullish follow through on Thursday, the dollar delivered a bearish surprise on Friday. The dollar formed a huge bearish reversal on Friday. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. If the dollar forms a swing high below the upper daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily downtrend and signal a cycle band sell signal. A break below 103.62 will form a daily swing high.
The dollar to formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday then delivered bearish follow through Thursday and Friday to close below the 200 day MA.
The dollar formed a swing high and broke below the day 30 low on Thursday. Breaking below the previous DCL forms a failed daily cycle and extends the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high below the lower daily cycle band indicates a continuation of the daily downtrend and signals a cycle band sell signal.
Stocks
Stocks broke bullishly out of consolidation on Wednesday, closing above the 200 day MA, then printed a higher high on Thursday.
The new high on day 34 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Friday was day 35, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks formed a swing high on Friday. If stocks deliver bearish follow through and close below both the 200 day MA and the 10 day MA that will signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close back below the lower daily cycle band.
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
Stocks broke out to a new daily cycle high on Monday but then went on to print a bearish reversal.
A new on day 22 shifts the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks currently being in a daily uptrend. However, stocks are now stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks may need to consolidate to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. A break below the 3911.79 level can be used as a stop. If stocks find support at the rising 10 day MA and break back above the 3911.79 level, then that could be used to go long once again.
The dollar printed its lowest point on day 17, which is early for a DCL. The rally out of the day 17 low closed convincingly above both the 50 day MA and the 10 day MA and the upper daily cycle band — indicating that day 17 was an early DCL. Then the dollar dropped 1.9% on Friday, forming a swing high and closing below the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA. The 10 day MA never turned higher to confirm the new daily cycle, causing uncertainty for the daily cycle count. The quick bearish reversal on RSI 05 is characteristic of the declining phase of the intermediate cycle decline, which makes me think that Friday was day 6.
Stocks
The initial surge out of the day 26 DCL saw stocks get stretched above the 10 day MA. Stocks had been consolidating above the 50 day MA — until Wednesday.
The Fed raising rates by .75% caused stocks to drop 2.5% on Wednesday and then another 1.06% on Thursday. Despite dropping 3.56 % on Wednesday and Thursday, stocks are still in a daily uptrend. And stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band on Friday, which indicates that they remain in their daily uptrend. A close above both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA will affirm that they will remain in a daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
The dollar formed a swing high on Monday then delivered bearish follow through on Tuesday, turning the 10 day MA lower to signal the daily cycle decline. A high on day 13 can still result in a left translated daily cycle formation. A break below the previous DCL of 109.97 will form a failed daily cycle and confirm the intermediate cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.
The dollar printed a bearish reversal on day 7 and then formed another bearish reversal on Friday.
The has been a definite bearish change in behavior for the dollar since printing the day 33 high in September. Half the daily candles since then have been bearish and the dollar is threatening to form a lower high. A high on day 13 can still result in a left translated daily cycle formation. The dollar has already closed below the 10 day MA. A break below 111.57 will form a swing high to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.
Stocks
Stocks printed a convincing bullish reversal on day 26, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a DCL.
Stocks closed above the declining trend line on Tuesday to signal a new daily cycle. Then stocks drifted lower into Friday.
Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA on Tuesday and formed a swing high on Wednesday. The decline into the day 26 low caused the 10 day MA to decline sharply. Stocks consolidated until Friday, which allowed the 10 day MA to cathc up to price. Then stocks (finally) delivered bullish follow through on Friday — turning the 10 day MA higher to affirm day 26 as the DCL.
Stocks have been declining for 10 months. Stocks are now overdue for a yearly cycle low. In the Weekend Report I discuss the status of the yearly cycle and also look at potential bullish surprise on the 4 year cycle.
The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Thursday.
Thursday was day 7. If the dollar delivers bearish follow through and closes below the 10 day MA, that would set the dollar up for a left translated daily cycle formation. However the dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then it will remain in its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.
Stocks
Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 26, placing stocks in the early part of its timing band for a DCL.Thursday’s bullish reversal saw stocks also close above the 10 day to signal that day 26 was the DCL. However, stocks ran into resistance at the declining trend line on Friday.
Stocks will need to form a swing low and close above the declining trend line in order to label day 26 as the DCL. However stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. If stocks form a swing high then they will remain in their daily downtrend and signal a cycle band sell signal.
The Weekend Report discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles. Also included in the Weekend Report is the Likesmoney CycleTracker
The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. Wednesday was day 33 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline.
The dollar delivered bearish follow through on by forming a swing high on Thursday. A break below the accelerated (dashed) trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar should go on to break below the rising blue trend line in order to complete its daily cycle decline. The dollar is currently in a strong daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.
Cycle Trading 