Bitcoin: Sell The News

The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETF’s on Wednesday which began trading on Thursday. BTC responded on Thursday by forming a bearish reversal, possibly selling the news.

BTC has been volatile over the past 2 weeks causing the status of the daily cycle to not be clear.And the volatility continued on Thursday.  Thursday’s bearish reversal calls into question if day 23 was an early DCL.The bearish divergence on the oscillators suggests that Thursday was day 30 for the daily cycle.If so, then a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.While the status of the daily cycle is not clear, what is clear is that BTC is is currently in a daily uptrend.  BTC will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Dollar Rebound – Update

The dollar closed above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Thursday to signal that day 26 hosted the DCL. Then the dollar lost both of the 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Friday to cause the status of the daily cycle to be uncertain.

The dollar closed back above the converging 10 day MA and 200 day MA on Monday. The dollar delivered bullish follow through on Tuesday, turning the 10 day MA higher, to confirm that day 26 was the DCL. We will be watching the declining 50 day as the dollar rallies out of its DCL. How the dollar reacts to the declining 50 day MA will signal if the 3 year cycle low has been set or is it still out in front.

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