Cycle Trading

The big reversal on the dollar on Monday opened the door to the possibility of yesterday being day 34 of a stretched cycle.

A swing low would be needed for that possibility to play out.

Instead of a swing low the dollar reversed again lower.

With each passing day, the evidence builds that this is a new, failed daily cycle for the dollar currently on day 8

The bigger picture also supports this, as well

The weekly dollar cycle peaked on week 13 and although it is early in the week, week 16 is continuing to decline into the intermediate cycle low.

With the daily cycle at day 8, this current can decline for another 2 to 4 weeks before printing a bottom.

It is no surprise that as the dollar drops into an intermediate cycle low,
Precious metals and the Miners are rallying.

The trend in the miners is clearly up and the dips are being bought.

Equities are on day 11 of the daily cycle and again the trend is higher.

Equites tested the 1360 resistance level today.
I think that equities will put in one more leg higher before seeking out a hal!f cycle low.

It looks like bonds might correct here.

My count has TLT at day 4 of a new daily cycle.

TLT printed a swing high today.

While it might just be noise, I am watching for some downside follow through .

In the meantime, we need to keep our eyes on which way the dollar may be leaning …