Cycle Trading

… causing the dollar to have a volatile day.

The dollar reacted to Ben’ speech.

It is interesting to note that Ben’s speech coincided with a level of support and the UUP 50 MA.

However, there was no real surprise from the Fed and our dollar framework remains intact.

The dollar is on day 9 of the current daily cycle of the intermediate cycle.
This current daily cycle has been in decline since day 1.

This is likely the final daily cycle to the current intermediate cycle.
Since March of 2008, daily cycle declines into intermediate cycle lows typically declined between 11 and 17 days for all except one that declined for 22 days.
If the dollar follows the pattern, then we should be on the look out for the dollar to print a low any day beginning the first week of July. The July jobs report is on Friday 7/06 that would take the current dollar cycle to day 20, which is right in the timing band for a daily cycle low.

Miners are on day 8 of their daily cycle.

The Miners appear to be ready to break out.
If Miners are still in a bull market, my guess would then be an upside breakout.

Although the CRB gave some back today …

The CRB formed a weekly swing low on Tuesday.
The CRB will need to remain above the intraday low set on 6/4 for the weekly swing low to hold.

So far the following assets have formed intermediate cycle lows that corresponds with the dollar intermediate top:
Equities
Gold & Precious Metals
Miners
Copper
… and oil is very likely in the process of hammering out a bottom now.

So despite (or in spite of) what Bernanke had to say, our framework of expectations continue to progress.