Cycle Trading

Our framework labeled 6/7 as the daily cycle low.
The reversal on the dollar raises some questions.

If the dollar prints a higher high on Tuesday it will form a swing low
And strengthen the case that 6/7 was not the daily cycle low.

If the dollar breaks above 82.90 that would certainly confirm that 6/7 was not the daily cycle low for the dollar. This is because a failed cycle cannot print a higher high.

If this were to happen, it would be too early in the daily cycle for another daily cycle low, so the conclusion is that the last daily cycle was stretched.

Our framework has gold sitting at day 6

Gold held up well in the face of a rallying dollar.
Miners were big and the action today also had me asking some questions.

Was June 8th a daily cycle low and could today be day 6 is instead of day 23 ?
This view would sync up with gold.
There is a greater expectation for a rally on day 6 than on day23.
By using a “thin” pencil, I am able to see a trend line break.

At day 23, the expectation is to look for a daily cycle decline.
A break below the blue trend line would signal that Monday was, in fact, day 23.

Getting back to the dollar. The dollar’s intermediate cycle decline should help to drive gold and equities higher.

If the dollar is truly on day 34, then there should still be a brief dollar rally before a more substantial 2 – 4 week decline. But unless the dollar forms a swing low, then the cycle is still in decline.

So in the next few days, the dollar should reveal its true hand