Friday was day 6 of the dollar’s daily cycle.
Friday saw the dollar break through the 81.75 support level
This should precipitate a 12 to 20 day move down into a daily cycle low.
Should the dollar reverse and break above last Thursday’s high (6/07) which is currently labeled day 1, then the 6/06 low will need to be rephrased.
At this point, I do not think that is a likely outcome.
That would stretch the previous daily cycle to 32 days.
But with the Greek elections and the FOMC next week it is prudent to keep an open mind about alternative scenarios.
The silver lining to the possibility of the daily cycle bottom not printing yet means that the intermediate cycle low for the dollar will extend out, giving more room for gold and precious metals to rally.
The weekly chart shows a clearly that a top is In the process of forming.
The weekly cycle peaked on week 13 and formed a swing high this week.
This week also left behind a long upper shadow that is characteristic of a decline.
The weekly cycle ranges 18 – 22 weeks from trough to trough.
Since the average duration of a daily cycle is 4 – 6 weeks, this new daily cycle should find its low right in the middle of the timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
Also, a typical dollar decline of the final daily cycle into an intermediate cycle low is 2 – 4 weeks. Our labeling of a day one peak on the daily cycle is consistent with this pattern.
One observation on the weekly cycles is that the weekly cycles have been printing higher highs and higher lows.
Unless this weekly cycle decline takes out the February low, then the expectation for the next weekly cycle would be to print another higher high.
The yearly cycle shows a (stealth) low printed in February which we previously discussed https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2012/05/24/stealth-mode/
One of the clues that February was a yearly cycle low is the year end coil.
I have noticed these coils occurring at approximately half of the yearly cycle lows.
That makes June month 4 of the yearly cycle, which is a higher monthly high.
Until there is a failed weekly cycle, I do not expect the current yearly cycle to begin its journey into another yearly cycle low.
Now it has been a few weeks since we visited with the declining ten year trend line
I noticed something interesting off the 10/92 and 1/05 pivots …
I find it interesting that the current intermediate cycle appears to have retreated from this second trend line.
Stocks
I am going to begin with the weekly equity chart.
Stocks have formed a weekly swing low and broke up through the declining trend line declaring a new equity intermediate cycle.
Most new intermediate cycles rally at least 5 – 6 six weeks out of the intermediate cycle low.
Friday was day 9 for the equity daily cycle.
The expectation of the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle is to form as a right translated cycle.
A right translated daily cycle peaks after the mid-way point, usually after day 18 or so.
This suggests that the current daily cycle should see another 2 weeks of higher trending prices.
If the dollar’s daily cycle is in fact on day 6 and in decline that would be congruent with another two – three week equity rally.
June is month 8 on the yearly cycle.
The monthly chart is in the process of printing a reversal candle suggesting that June may be printing an early yearly cycle low.
The next equity 4 year low is due in 2013. The currently 4 year cycle is 39 months old. The last 4 year low declined 17 months into its 4 year low.
Perhaps an early yearly low now is setting up a brief rally before a more substantial sell off into a four year low in 2013.
Gold
My current framework for the dollar has a daily cycle low printing on last week, 6/07.
Based partially on that, I have gold on day 5 of the current daily cycle.
The intermediate cycle for gold is a little clearer than the daily cycle.
This was week 4 for gold’s weekly cycle.
Gold is coming off a triple bottom test which should provide a solid base to launch a new yearly cycle.
Gold has been consolidating last year’s rally for 9 months.
Gold has printed stretched cycles in the past and appears to be in the process of doing so again.
May was month 16 of a stretched yearly cycle for gold.
A break above the declining trend line will confirm a new yearly cycle.
With gold still early in a new intermediate cycle, gold is likely to begin the new yearly cycle with the next monthly swing low.
The Miners
Friday was day 21 for the Miners daily cycle.
The current cycle has a day 14 peak.
Friday the HUI closed just above the daily cycle trend line.
A break below Friday’s low will likely send the Miners into a daily cycle decline.
This was also week 4 for the intermediate cycle.
The Miners are currently working through a congestion zone.
As we saw last week, there is a monthly swing low for the Miners.
Very likely a new yearly and new three year cycle has begun.
A break of the declining trend line will confirm a new three year cycle.
The CRB
The weekly CRB may be close to forming a weekly swing low.
The CRB printed a 25 week low last week.
This week the CRB closed in the upper half of the weekly candle.
The CRB needs to break above 276.54 to from a weekly swing low.
A new intermediate cycle will likely begin a new three year cycle
Bonus Chart
See you at the …
Cycle Trading 
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