The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

May 30, 2012

That was my impression of Tuesday’s session.

Stocks finally managed to show some follow through to the new daily cycle.

Tuesday was day 6 for the new equity cycle.
Equities had an impressive 87% up volume day.
But we are to out of the woods yet.

The SPY printed 155 million in Selling on Strength today.

Taken by itself, it’s notable day.

But add that to the 58 Million SOS on 5/21, 222 Million SOS on 5/22, and the
142 Million SOS on 5/24 totals to 577 SOS just over the past week.

So while stocks were good, there is a growing concern…

The Miners were down big, 2.05% — that’s bad.

As bad as that was, the daily cycle trend line for the miners is still intact.

This was an ugly surprise

In a Bull market, surprises should come to the up side.
This down side surprise is sending a signal that while gold is in a new daily cycle,
A new intermediate cycle has yet to be confirmed.

Gold’s daily cycle stands at day 8.
If gold does not get moving, it is in jeopardy of forming a left translated daily cycle.

I will point out that GLD had a small 18 million Buying on Strength print today…

Everything seems to be waiting on the dollar to top.
Right now there is a flight to safety and the dollar is benefitting.
The dollar’s daily cycle stands at 19 days.
The dollar is in the timing band to print a low.
Friday’s job’s number may be the catalyst for a swing high on the dollar.

Ultimately, it comes down to the dollar.

6 responses to “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”

likesmoneystudies

May 30, 2012

Editor’s note:

I drafted this report last night and previewed it and thought I published it.

Then I found it in my drafts this morning 🙂

Reply
1. jeff
  
  May 30, 2012
  
  this is one of those reports that surely needs a soundtrack.
  
  Reply
likesmoneystudies

May 30, 2012

Jeff,

Once I stumbled on that theme for last night’s post, I was playing that sound track in my head ask worked up my charts.

Reply
likesmoneystudies

May 30, 2012

I am beginning to think that the dollar is not on week three, but week 12.

Reply
jeff

May 30, 2012

I’M willing to go with that. Did you see doc’s comment “This week’s public opinion figure for the dollar printed in nosebleed territory at over 80% bullishness. This figure exceeds the frenzy for dollars at both the 2008 and 2010 peaks. In other words the lust for dollars is so high as to suggest an imminent peak to the 3-year cycle, not just an intermediate cycle”
So this is a very healthy rt cycle on the dollar. The thought is the next daily cycle, look for a new hi, but LT cycle failing impressively.
Although i really thought this would go on for a while so we could get a little deflation for the people/ king O

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  May 30, 2012
  
  “So this is a very healthy rt cycle on the dollar. The thought is the next daily cycle, look for a new hi, but LT cycle failing impressively.”
  
  I can see a 4-5 day dollar correction and then the above scenario.
  
  So, let’s say the dollar finds a daily cycle low next week, week 13.
  A 5 week daily cycle would bring the dollar to week 18, right in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
  
  Reply

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