Thursday was day 20 for the current dollar daily cycle.
The dollar daily cycle normally runs 18 – 25 days from trough to trough.
Some have stretched to 28 or 29 days.
The dollar is in the timing band to seek out a daily cycle low.
With each passing day, the dollar increases the likelihood of printing a top.
I came to the realization today that the current intermediate cycle is similar to the 25 week cycle that occurred one year ago.
Last year, the dollar consolidated for 17 weeks before breaking out.
The break out was a continuation of that cycle that stretched to 25 weeks.
That was difficult to interpret in real time.
It seems to me that the dollar is in a similar pattern.
Currently the dollar went through a 16 week consolidation before breaking out.
Since an intermediate cycle low printed during that consolidation, I do not expect this to stretch to 25 weeks.
The weekly dollar cycle normally finds its low between 16 and 23 weeks.
Allowing for another week to conclude this current daily cycle and add another 5 weeks for another intermediate cycle and that would bring the dollar to week 19 and right in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
This view of a 25 week cycle followed by a 20 week cycle and now on week 13 is congruent with what I see on the monthly cycle.
The dollar typically prints a yearly low every 9 – 12 months.
I have noticed that a decline into a three year low can extend the cycle to as much as 18 months.
So the dollar peaked in January and formed a swing high and found its yearly cycle low in February.
The next month a swing low was printed and the dollar began a new yearly cycle.
That February yearly low coincides with the 20 week intermediate low printed in February.
So we are back to waiting on the dollar to form a daily swing high to help complete this picture …





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