Friday was day 18 for the dollar’s daily cycle.
Some may wonder if a daily cycle low already printed at day 14.
Day 14 was too early in the timing band for a daily cycle low.
Also, that swing low is not breach the daily cycle trend line.
Day 18 begins the dollar’s timing band to seek out its daily cycle
A swing high now will likely mark the cycle top.
The weekly cycle is at week three.
This is the third weekly cycle of the current three year cycle.
A three year cycle can have 6 to 8 weekly cycles nestled within it.
The weekly cycles continue to form higher highs and higher lows until a failed weekly cycle is printed.
Then the three year cycle declines into its three year low.
So the current three year cycle is still in ascent.
And the yearly cycle just began a new cycle and is also in ascent.
By the way, the dollar is in the second 3 year cycle of the fifteen year super cycle.
The 15 year super cycle generally sees the dollar trending higher for approximately the first 90 months .
The dollar is at
Week 3 of the intermediate cycle
Month 3 of the yearly cycle
The second 3 year cycle of the 15 year super cycle,.
Unless there is some type of intervention, this is a very bullish time for the dollar from a cycle perspective
And there’s that problem in Europe.
So it is no wonder that the dollar broke up through the declining 10 year trend line this week.
Stocks
Equities formed a swing low on Monday.
That was followed on Tuesday by braking up through the declining cycle trend line.
This confirms a new daily equity cycle.
It looks as if equities are waiting for the dollar to roll over before continuing higher
While we have confirmation of a new daily equity cycle,
the weekly cycle confirmation continues to elude us.
So far equities appear to have printed a weekly low on weekly 32, which is late of the normal timing band for a weekly cycle low/
Confirmation of a new weekly cycle still needs a weekly swing low and a break of the declining weekly cycle trend line.
Once there is confirmation of a new intermediate cycle, that will end a very stretched weekly cycle.
While Operation Twist appears to have stretched the weekly cycle, it does not look to have an impact on the yearly cycle.
The yearly cycle stands at 7 months.
If a new intermediate cycle is confirmed, this could also mark a new yearly cycle.
But if the new intermediate cycle turns out to be left translated, then the yearly low could still be 20 or so weeks out in front.
Gold
Last Friday gold broke through the declining cycle trend line to confirm a new daily cycle.
Wednesday gold set the daily cycle trend line and possibly set an accelerated daily cycle trend line.
Friday, while the dollar continued to rally, gold delivered a solid .88% gain.
The first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle brings the expectation of a right translated cycle. Meaning gold should rally for at least 12 days. Friday was day 7. Gold should rally for another week and could rally up to two more weeks before entering the timing band to seek out its daily cycle low.
Gold’s intermediate cycle (barely) formed a swing low last week.
The swing was formed off the weekly cycle low printed on week 20, which is right in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low.
We await confirmation of a new weekly cycle. A break above 1620 would break through the declining weekly cycle trend line confirming a new weekly cycle.
We are also awaiting confirmation of a new yearly cycle for gold.
Gold is currently on month 16 of the yearly cycle.
I will acknowledge the possibility that month 11 marked a yearly cycle low and now the current yearly cycle has rolled over and this is month 5.
Once the character of the imminent intermediate cycle is revealed, that will clear up the status of the yearly cycle.
The Miners
The Miners appears to have taken to lead from gold on a daily, weekly and yearly basis.
Wednesday saw the Miners break above the declining trend line confirming a new daily cycle. Friday was day 7 of the new daily cycle.
So while gold struggled to even print a weekly swing low, the Miners surged ahead printing a weekly swing low and broke convincingly above the declining weekly trend line confirming a new intermediate cycle.
The monthly candle is developing into a bullish hammer
Now that there is confirmation on a new intermediate cycle, I fully expect June’s monthly candle to form a monthly swing low marking May as the Yearly and three year cycle low.
The big picture has the dollar in a very bullish part of its cycle and has just broke above the declining 10 year trend line.
Equities and gold just confirmed new daily cycles and has yet to confirm new intermediate cycles.
The Miners appear to be leading all the asset classes with confirmation of a new daily and intermediate cycle and appears to be in the process of printing a three year low.
The rallying dollar certainly muddies up the waters.
A declining dollar is congruent with the risk-on trade.
Gold, the Miners and Equities all have printed daily cycle lows in the face of the unrelenting dollar rally.
Precious metals and miners appear to me to have printed major lows and are rallying despite the dollar strength.
Until the dollar “behaves” we need to be mindful of the additional risk this represents.
Now the question is how does the dollar beaching the 10 year declining trend line affect risk on assets like precious and the miners.
To get a handle on that, lets look at the last time the Miners printed a three year low back in October 2008.
(1) The miners bottomed and began to rally while the dollar still had 5 months to go before topping.
By the way stocks were crashing into the March 09 lows at this time.
(2) Once again the dollar rallied from November 09 to July 2010 and the miners continued to rally.
The Miners have demonstrated the ability to lead in the past and appear to be doing so once again.
See you at the …
Cycle Trading 
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