Stealth Mode

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I believe that the dollar was in stealth mode and printed its yearly cycle low in February.

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I say stealth because it used a shallow one month decline to print that low.
Then in March, it barely printed a swing low, leaving me guessing if a yearly low was in or not.

The reason why this yearly low was hard to spot in real time is because the yearly cycle printed its low in what I refer to as a “year end coil”.

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Year end coils can occur at the yearly cycle low and can range from 3 to 5 months.

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Over the past 15 yearly cycle lows, these year end coils occurred 7 times.

Back to the yearly cycle, the February low was nine months into the yearly cycle, is that enough for a yearly cycle low?

As it turns out 12 of the preceding 14 yearly cycle lows occurred between 7 and 11 months, making 9 months smack dab in the middle of the timing band for a yearly low.

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By labeling February as a yearly cycle low I am not comfortable of including February as part of a 26 week intermediate cycle.

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But that does not change my current labeling in the weekly cycle.
This is clearly week 3 of a new weekly cycle.

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And Thursday was day 17 of the dollar’s daily cycle.
Day 18 marks the beginning of its approximately 2 week timing band to print a low.

It remains to be seen who the pilot is of our stealth dollar bomber …

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14 responses to “Stealth Mode”

  1. Mike Avatar
    Mike

    Soooo, then? more upside and PM down side? Today the 10 yr trendline was broken wit follow through

  2. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    Ahh.. The Who question.
    Ya i got no answer.
    Its not who , it is wrong philosophies. I could really get going on this, but i digress. thanks LM

  3. kenner Avatar
    kenner

    You haven’t mentioned the 10Y declining trend line on the USD in some time now, but the price is bumping right up against it now. A major turning point coming around 82.50? What are you thoughts about this?

  4. trondtveten Avatar
    trondtveten

    LM, you mention previously that if the 10 year down trendline was broken (presently a fact), it would be very important, and the dollar might take off. Now what..?

  5. kennerhk Avatar
    kennerhk

    Seems we all have the same things on our minds. Has the 10Y descending trend line been broken and, what are the implications, especially to PMs? Doesn’t look like it has broken on my charts, but I’m using stockcharts.com which has some issues with the $USD chart. My problem is that with all the recent posts about miners should soar from here, I just don’t see how PMs can be taking off out of yearly lows and have a long rally in front of them if the $USD is getting stronger every day. And even if BB wanted to kill the USD with another round of whatever, it would seem that would be very hard to do right now given the amount of USD demand coming out of the EU. Things just aren’t adding up for me. The price action in PMs doesn’t seems really weak and could just be a big head fake before another leg down. Maybe you can address some of these things in the weekend update.

  6. ALEX Avatar
    ALEX

    Interesting…leaves me with a few questions too : ]

  7. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    so the other times the 10 year trendline was broken, It was a 2 month event before it toped, reset. Seems to me that would be great for the politicians to let everything deflate for a while ( oil ! ) and then ben could sell into the strength.

  8. likesmoneystudies Avatar
    likesmoneystudies

    I have questions on the ten year trend line being broken, as well.
    I plan to look at that this weekend

    1. Jeff Avatar
      Jeff

      LM
      I’m guessing none of our cycle guys will.
      It’s all on your shoulders

  9. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    SCORE !!! another 100 on the blees

    1. Mike Avatar
      Mike

      where can one find the blees rating?

      1. jeff Avatar
        jeff

        gary savage on smt
        its a rateing on the cot reports. 100 rateing is the most bullish extreem. 3rd week in a row. in other words , the big money is loading up on gold now.

  10. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    i can feel the wheels turnning as the weekend reprot is being churnned out with great diligence.
    I bet there has been 1,000 hits on this blog this weekend. ( all mine )

    http://www.dreamstime.com/stock-photos-solving-problems-image18169273

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