Cycle Trading

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There are some interesting things to note on the dollar chart tonight.

Thursday’s candle shows the dollar poking through the intermediate cycle trend line, recovering some and leaving behind a long lower tail.
Friday’s candle shows a swing low has formed.
With Thursday being day 17, there is the potential of this being the daily cycle low.
As of now, when I am writing this report, the dollar is being contained by the declining cycle trend line.
Remember, until the declining trend line is clearly breached, it isn’t and the daily dollar cycle remains in decline.

I will say that when the dollar does form a low, we are likely to see the new daily cycle form as left translated. This is based on the development of the weekly chart.

The dollar is currently on week 8 of the intermediate cycle.
The weekly cycle peak (so far) is on week 2.
Today, the dollar managed to poke below the intermediate cycle trend line.
The trend line break suggests that the weekly cycle is in decline.
If week 2 holds on as the weekly cycle peak, the cycle will be left translated and very likely print a lower weekly cycle low.
My studies show that left translated weekly dollar cycles print a weekly low 70% of the time between weeks 14 & 20.
That suggests 6 to 12 more weeks of dollar weakness.
Under this scenario, any new daily dollar cycles are likely to be left translated, printing lower highs and lower lows.

And lower daily highs and lower daily lows on the dollar should be bullish for the miners.

The HUI did print a trend line break on Thursday.
Notice the resistance at the 450 level.
Now we need to see some follow through.

The Commodities Complex appears to be bottoming as well.

The CRB has been caught in the grips of a sell off for the past three daily cycles.
The CRB appears to have printed a bottom on Monday and there is a swing low formed.

A break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily and intermediate cycle for Commodities.

Things are beginning to line up for a bullish run in commodities.