Gold broke below its previous intermediate cycle low (ICL) this week, forming a failed intermediate cycle.
A failed cycle occurs when price breaks below the low that began the preceding cycle. Rather than developing a sustained advance, the new cycle fails to hold above its starting point.
That is an important change in character.
In our earlier analysis, Gold — Not Buying It, we questioned the developing daily cycle reversal. Friday’s breakdown provided further evidence that the decline was not finished.
Gold remains in a downtrend, with price continuing to make lower lows.
The failed intermediate cycle is a significant warning. But it is important to distinguish evidence of continued weakness from evidence that a decline is ending.
For now, gold has provided the former, not the latter.
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