Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

On Thursday, One More Hurdle? highlighted Gold and Bitcoin as both sat deep in their timing bands for Daily Cycle Lows.

The structures were in place. The triggers were defined. We were waiting for price to provide the evidence.

On Friday, it did.

Gold

In One More Hurdle?, Gold had printed its lowest point on Day 43 and formed a swing low. A close above the 10 day MA was needed to label the DCL.

Gold closed above the 10 day MA on Friday.

We will now label Day 43 as the DCL.

Gold remains in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and renew the daily uptrend.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin entered Friday with a potential Day 44 DCL while compressing inside a triangle consolidation.

A break above 78,240.25 was needed to form a swing low, followed by a close above the 10 day MA to label the DCL.

Bitcoin provided both pieces of evidence on Friday.

We will now label Day 44 as the DCL.

Bitcoin remains in a daily uptrend, with the breakout from the triangle indicating a continuation of that uptrend.

The Evidence Arrives

Thursday’s post wasn’t a prediction that Friday’s options expiration would produce the lows. The potential lows were already developing before Friday arrived. Cycle timing told us where to look. The developing structures told us what to watch. And the price triggers told us what evidence was needed. — Friday simply provided the answer.

That is the important lesson from this before-and-after sequence:

The structure comes first. The trigger defines the evidence. Price determines the conclusion.

Cycle Alignment

Gold: Day 43 DCL labeled; Daily downtrend remains until Gold closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Bitcoin: Day 44 DCL labeled; Daily uptrend continues following the triangle breakout and DCL confirmation.