Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

Gold and Bitcoin are both deep in their timing bands for Daily Cycle Lows. Gold has formed a swing low while Bitcoin is challenging its declining trend line.

With Friday’s options expiration approaching, both markets are sitting near important cycle decision points.

Gold

Gold closed below the 50 day MA on Wednesday to print its lowest point on Day 43, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL.

Gold has been finding support along the 50 day MA and formed a swing low on Thursday. Gold is now challenging the 10 day MA.

A close above the 10 day MA will have us label Day 43 as the DCL and signal a cycle band buy signal.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin printed its lowest point on Tuesday, Day 44. Bitcoin rallied Wednesday and Thursday and is now challenging the declining trend line.

Bitcoin is currently in a daily uptrend.

A break above 78,240.25 will form a swing low. A swing low with a close above the 10 day MA will indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we will then label Day 44 as the DCL.

One More Hurdle?

The FOMC announcement provided a catalyst on Wednesday, but it did not resolve all of the cycle structures we have been following.

Now Friday brings another potential catalyst with options expiration.

Gold and Bitcoin are both deep in DCL timing, both have potential cycle lows in place, and both are approaching clearly defined technical triggers.

Will Friday provide the evidence?

We don’t need to predict the answer.

The structures are in place. The triggers are defined. Price will tell us what happens next.

Cycle Alignment

Gold: Deep DCL timing; Day 43 potential DCL with a swing low formed. A close above the 10 day MA will label the DCL.

Bitcoin: Deep DCL timing; Day 44 potential DCL. A break above 78,240.25 forms a swing low; a close above the 10 day MA will label the DCL.