Cycle Trading

Summary

• Weekly swing high confirmed
• Closed below 10 week MA
• Testing / breaking 50 week MA
• Left-translated risk remains
• Watch lower cycle band

The dollar formed a weekly swing high and closed below the 10 week moving average the previous week, signaling a shift in momentum. From a cycle perspective, the peak on week 9 still allows for a left-translated weekly cycle formation, which raises the risk of a deeper decline. While the dollar initially found support at the 50 week moving average, price is now in the process of breaking below that level.

Downside pressure is beginning to build as the dollar loses support at a key level.

A close below the 50 week moving average would signal the intermediate cycle decline. A close below the lower weekly cycle band would end the weekly uptrend and begin a new weekly downtrend. I

Cycle Alignment

Weekly: Uptrend under pressure — left-translated risk building