Cycle Trading

Summary

• Consolidation → expansion pattern remains intact
• Prior examples completed full cycle sequence
• Stocks still resolving 7-month range
• Testing 10 month MA
• Watch 6901.01 for confirmation

On April 1st, I outlined the consistent sequence seen across multiple assets — consolidation, expansion, then cycle decline. That structure continues to hold.

It is the consolidation that defines the opportunity. Each prior example resolved higher before transitioning into a cycle decline, reinforcing the same cycle-driven framework. Stocks remain in a 7-month consolidation below 7000, as shown in the original chart, above, but are now beginning to shift.

Price is in the process of breaking above the 10 month moving average and approaching the formation of a monthly swing low. From a cycle perspective, a monthly close above 6901.01 would signal a continuation of the monthly uptrend and trigger a monthly cycle band buy signal. We would then label March as the yearly cycle low. However, confirmation will be needed. If stocks hold above the 10 month moving average and break higher, then a transition into expansion could follow. If not, the consolidation may continue.

Cycle Alignment

Monthly: Uptrend — potential YCL, confirmation pending