Super Mario

January 22, 2015

ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank would make monthly bond purchases of as much as $70 billion starting in March, and running through September of next year. Stocks reacted positively.

http://postimg.org/image/youb2x12j/

Stocks broke above the declining trend line and regained the 50 day MA today. Today was day 24 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks still sport a day 8 peak so this daily cycle still maintains a left translated configuration unless stocks break to a new high.

And in spite of the positive reaction stocks still delivered another major bearish signal.

http://postimg.org/image/q9yopyjf5/

Stocks printed another quad Selling on Strength day. The Selling on Strength for Thursday was 1.511 Billion. However, today was not the only quad SOS day for this daily cycle. Another one printed on December 19th.

I have not ever seen a daily cycle record two quad SOS days. In fact, I have only seen a quad day printed 3 times total. They happened during three different daily cycles that led into the 2009 financial crisis low.

http://postimg.org/image/u7sfs0ft9/

8 responses to “Super Mario”

rob

January 22, 2015

IS the SPX in deep shit?

Reply
karni

January 23, 2015

What is “quad” SOS day

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  January 23, 2015
  
  A quad day is a quadtriple digit day for selling on strength.
  
  Yesterday the Selling on Strength for the SPY was 1511
  
  one billion five hundred eleven million.
  
  Normally a ‘big’ SOS number would be 400 to 600 million, triple digits.
  
  Reply
  1. lion1
    
    January 23, 2015
    
    I had not realized there was a comments section.
    
    As I posted today on another website, which apparently picked up your BoW number, for what it’s worth, this number was only posted after the close (and SPY was not on the list during the day, I was checking), and at least one experienced market commentator/trader believes that when large numbers mysteriously appear after the close, the numbers are a manipulation/fake.
    
    (And It’s my recollection that IWM was not on the list yesterday either during the normal trading hours.)
    
    As another example of what appears to be manipulation, SPY was listed under Buying on Weakness until a couple hours ago, and then disappeared.
    
    Edit Delete
  2. lion1
    
    January 23, 2015
    
    Seems your edit button is not working, meant to say: “which apparently picked up your SoS number”
KennerHK

January 24, 2015

Wouldn’t a “quad” day be a 4 digit rather than “triple digit” or am I missing something here?

There is no mention about the fact that we had a day 8 peak (LT) and yet the cycle didn’t fail. Previous cycles have run long, well over 35 days for the last several DCs. A day 21 DCL just doesn’t seem right. Could it be that we haven’t seen the 2nd DCL yet and that it will roll over and fail into the 2nd DCL? The other thing is that if you draw a line connecting all the recent TSI peaks, the TSI is right at that line and looks like it’s rolling over along with other indicators.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  January 24, 2015
  
  KennerHK,
  
  You are correct, I just did not state it clearly enough. A quad day is a 4 digit day.
  We have had left translated cycles that did not fail and I agree that a 21 day dcl is just too short.
  Perhaps you misread my notation. I merely noted that January 16th was day 21. I did not label it as a 21 LT.
  My view is that Friday is day 25.
  
  Reply
  1. KennerHK
    
    January 27, 2015
    
    Sorry, my bad. You’re right. I mistakenly read your 21 under the bottom as indicating a DCL. Thanks for clearing that up. BTW, as of today, 1/28, the daily TSI has rolled over and has or about to cross over.