The Dollar
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The previous week the Swiss unpegs the Franc from the Euro. This week Draghi announces Euro QE. These events have helped to obscure our daily cycle count.
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One possible scenario is that Friday is simply day 25. The daily cycle is forming in a right translated manner and is deep in its timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. We would expect a brief decline soon then a new cycle that breaks to a new daily cycle high.
A second scenario is that the daily cycle peaked the day after the Swiss unpegs from the Euro. A 2 day decline that only marginally breaches the daily cycle trend line and forms a swing high. The announcement of Euro QE would then be day 1 of a new daily cycle.
We will need to be open to either possibility as we wait for further evidence.
Stocks
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After peaking on day 8 stocks declined and broke below the 50 day MA, which usually signals a daily cycle decline.
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Stocks regained the 50 day MA and then broke lower, printing a lower low on day 21. Stocks, once again, regained the 50 day MA on Thursday, but then closed lower on Friday. This week also saw a historic Selling on Strength day on Thursday and followed up with a large Buying on Weakness day on Friday, which signals that that bulls are not giving up without a fight.
Still, stocks sport a day 8 peak so this daily cycle still maintains a left translated configuration. This is a bearish setup. Of course a break to a new high negates the day 8 peak and would deliver a very bullish configuration.
Barring a break to a new high, stocks should still decline into a daily cycle low. A daily cycle low is defined as the lowest point following the cycle peak, which is currently day 21. Since day 21 is simply too early for a daily cycle low, stocks would need to break below the day 21 low of 1988.12 to print a daily cycle low.
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