Cycle Trading

The daily Miner cycle (GDX) peaked on day 14 as it tested the declining 50 day MA. It has declined since, printing its lowest point on day 19.

So Monday is either day 3 or day 22 for daily Miner cycle. A break above the day 19 candle forms a swing low and signals a new daily cycle. From the close of today, that would be a 5.7% move. The HUI shows a slightly more bullish scenario.

The HUI printed it lowest point today, since the cycle peak. From today’s close only a 1.5% move higher forms a swing low which signals a new daily cycle. In either case a close above the declining 50 MA confirms a new daily cycle. And should a new daily cycle get confirmed here, the Miners would have printed a higher low, breaking the pattern of lower lows.

The Miners may have been waiting on the dollar to rollover before beginning a new daily cycle. The dollar took a step in the right direction today.

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Monday was day 7 for the daily dollar cycle. The dollar did print a higher high, but then closed lower for the day. This has eased the parameters for forming a swing high. A break below 88.91 forms a swing high. And a peak by day 8 aligns with our expectation of a left translated daily cycle forming, which will lead to an intermediate cycle decline. A break below 87.56 delivers a failed daily cycle.