Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar finally broke out of consolidation last week rallying to a new daily cycle high on Friday.

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Day 30 followed the day 28 peak. The dollar did close below the 10 day MA and there was also a corresponding bearish zero line crossover on the TSI. The break in the declining TSI trend line confirms the new daily cycle. With the dollar’s intermediate cycle being extended, our expectation is to see this daily cycle form in a left translated manner, peaking on or before day 8.

Stocks
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Lately the dollar and the daily equity cycle have been in lock step. And that is still the case as the dollar made a new daily cycle high and stocks follow suit.

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Friday was day 36 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band to seek out a daily cycle low. At this late stage of the daily cycle, a swing high and a close below the 10 day MA should signal the daily cycle decline. The nearly 300 million in Selling on Strength that printed on Friday also indicate a cycle decline is imminent.

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