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Cycle Trading

Turning Points

0http://postimg.org/image/vkuaov69p/

Both the dollar and equities appear to have hit turning points.

1 $$$http://postimg.org/image/ndxpjjqt9/

The dollar is 21 weeks into its intermediate cycle and due to roll over into an intermediate cycle low. Therefore our expectation would be to see the dollar to roll over by day 8 and print a failed daily cycle.

We can see that the dollar peaked on Tuesday which was day 5. While the dollar closed lower on Wednesday, a swing high did not form until today. The dollar also broke below the daily cycle trend line which signals a daily cycle decline and fits into our expectation of forming as a left translated cycle. The bearish crossover on the True Strength Indicator also signals a daily cycle decline for the buck.

spxhttp://postimg.org/image/vkuaov69p/

Stocks printed a bullish reversal today. Thursday was day 39 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 1952.32 forms a swing low. Then a break of the declining trend line confirms a new daily cycle.

8 responses to “Turning Points”

  1. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Likesmoney,
    Since we have a swing high for the Weekly & Monthly on the $SPX, ‘if’ this is a new Daily Cycle, what list of indicators should we watch for a Failed Daily Cycle.
    thanks, Jack Dog

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Jack Dog,

      A failed weekly cycle confirms the yearly cycle decline.
      A failed daily cycle confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

      A break below 1926.03 delvers a failed daily cycle.

      Reply
  2. Adrian Thomas Avatar
    Adrian Thomas

    Also what sort of retracement level are we looking at for the USD?

    Knowing how the USD has been behaving, this could just be a fake out to trap the Bears, although the only difference being the time period its in for a decline to begin.

    Will be interesting

    Reply
  3. Adrian Thomas Avatar
    Adrian Thomas

    Now we have a new daily cycle in the USD?

    Reply
  4. likesmoneystudies Avatar
    likesmoneystudies

    It is not likely. It would be too early in the cycle for a daily cycle low.

    Reply
  5. Adrian Avatar
    Adrian

    So perhaps more a blow off sort of top on Day 8, depending of course on how it closes

    Reply
  6. Adrian Thomas Avatar
    Adrian Thomas

    Looks like the dollar is going to 88-89 and the euro down to 120ish – is there such a thing as a stretched cycle such as out to end of October or something up to the FOMC meeting?

    Maybe Friday’s surge was just an emotive surge. Something needs to turn it this week. Wonder what bullish sentiment is at for the USD. Must be off the charts

    Reply
  7. Adrian Thomas Avatar
    Adrian Thomas

    So with the dollar correction – what sort of level or retrace would you be looking at before the next Intermediate Cycle begins to test the 200MA?
    Thanks

    Reply

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