Cycle Trading

The Dollar
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The dollar formed a swing high on Thursday. Friday’s move higher negated the swing high on Thursday.

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The big day on Friday printed a new high on day 8 and a new high on week 21. Unless the dollar rolls over imminently this daily cycle will end up forming as a right translated cycle. Meaning then that one more daily cycle would be required to form and fail to lead to the intermediate cycle decline.

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It is interesting to note that there was a relatively big Selling on Strength number for the dollar (UUP) on Friday. The weekly cycle is aging and this could be a sign of exhaustion for the dollar bull.

Stocks
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The daily equity cycle peaked on day 30. The lowest point following the peak printed on Thursday.

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Thursday was day 39 for the daily equity cycle. Stocks are in the their timing band to print a daily cycle low. The bullish reversal followed by a swing low on Friday signals a new daily cycle. A break of the declining trend line will confirm a new daily cycle. However, as we will discuss in the Weekend Report, the weekly chart is signaling that an intermediate cycle decline is imminent.

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