Cycle Trading

Friday was day 24 for the previous daily gold cycle.
A swing low formed on Monday along with a trend line break.
That all occurred in the timing band for the daily cycle low.

If gold breaks below last Friday’s intra-day low of 1684 that means either:
1) Gold has produced a failed daily cycle at day 5 (or 6 or 7)
2) The daily cycle low did not print at day 24 but is still in front of us.

The Miners are a bit more complicated

This current intermediate cycle low reminds me of the complicated three year low formed in July.

1) The Miners printed a fake out low at (a)
2) The cycle low printed at (b)
3) Just when everyone thought it was safe to go back in — wham — a bottom test at (c)

If this patterns fails and the Miners break below 427.46, then like gold we would be forced to consider if this is an extended cycle low are a new failed daily cycle.

The CCI is already facing this …

The CCI printed a low on day 24 and followed up with a swing low and (golden) trend line break.

Thursday saw the CCI break to a lower low. So was today day 27 of an extended cycle or was day 24 the DCL and are we now looking at a failed daily cycle?

All of the above will likely resolve once the dollar’s daily cycle makes a decision.

Currently the dollar has peaked on day 2, then dropped for three days.
On Thursday, day 6, the dollar saw a small bounce.
A break above the day two high of 80.66 keeps alive the possibility that the dollar could break above the previous daily cycle high of 81.45.
A break below the daily cycle low of 79.71 confirms a failed daily cycle, which should ignite rallies in equities and precious metals.

So how the dollar resolves itself should shed some light in the other areas ..