Cycle Trading

Friday was day 17 for the dollar’s daily cycle.
The dollar flirted with the 150 day ma, but did not penetrate it.
We may still yet see a breach followed by a reversal.

Day 10 not only set the daily cycle trend line, but also initiated an accelerated trend line (red).
A breach of the 150 MA along with a swing high and a break of the accelerated trend line should mark the top to the this daily cycle.

A day 17 peak on the daily cycle virtually guarantees a right translated daily cycle with the expectation of the next daily cycle printing a higher high.

Considering how equities responded today, the dollar just may have topped today.

This week marked the 8th week of this new intermediate cycle.

As we will see with the yearly cycle, it appears that the yearly cycle is in decline.
That sets the expectation of subsequent weekly cycles to form as left translated.
Left translated weekly cycles typically peak by week 8.

The dollar should begin its journey into a daily cycle low next week.
A break below 80.28 forms a weekly swing high.
A break below the weekly cycle trend line would confirm an intermediate cycle decline.

Also in play is is a potential head & shoulders topping pattern that could be syncing up with an intermediate cycle decline.
An extended daily cycle that fails will keep this potential head & shoulders pattern in play.

However, another possibility to be on guard for is for the dollar to print a daily cycle low over the next 3 – 6 days.
That would form a right translated daily cycle setting the expectation of the next daily cycle making one more push to a higher.

We see that the dollar’s yearly cycle has peaked on month 5 has been in decline since.
November is month 9 on the yearly cycle.

If the dollar breaks above the September intra-month high of 81.67 it will form a monthly swing low.

That would mean that September was a 7 month yearly cycle low.
A 7 month yearly low is a very low probability event.

If the yearly cycle decline is still in play then the dollar should be rejected by the declining yearly cycle trend line.

Stocks

Friday was day 46 for the daily equity cycle and stocks made a push lower and then turned positive.

A break above 1391.39 will form a swing low.
And with the daily cycle being so late in the timing band, this will likely mark the daily cycle low.

It is interesting to note that one of the market leaders, AAPL, topped the BOW list during the day.

AAPL then went on to print a reversal on Friday.

Which further suggests a bottom is in.

Oil also appears to have found support rebounding 1.14 % on Friday further supporting the notion a bottom may be in.

This was week 22 for the intermediate equity cycle.

It is beginning to get late in the timing band for stocks to print a weekly low.
A daily swing low will not only mark a new daily cycle but a new intermediate cycle as well.

Once the intermediate cycle is printed, equities normally go on at least a 6 week rally, longer if the intermediate cycle forms as right translated.

The yearly cycle has a current peak on month 3.
A swing high has formed in November, which is month 5 for the yearly cycle.

Since this intermediate cycle appears to be concluding as a right translated cycle,
the expectation is for the next intermediate cycle to print a higher high.
That could see stocks mare a run at the 1500 level.

Gold

Gold printed its daily cycle low on Monday

Gold then formed a swing low and broke through the declining cycle trend line
declaring Tuesday as day 1 of the new daily cycle.

Friday was day 4 and we see that gold is taking a breather at the 1740 resistance level.  I suspect that once the dollar rolls over we will see gold slice through 1740 and likely challenge 1800 during this first daily cycle.

Gold’s intermediate cycle runs 17 – 25 weeks form trough to trough.
This past week was week 25, on the outter timing band to print a weekly low.

This week gold printed a bullish engulfing weekly candle.
Since gold printed a lower weekly low, the earliest gold can form a weekly swing low will be next week.

A break above 1739 forms a weekly swing low and confirms a new intermediate cycle.

Gold is still early in its yearly cycle setting the expectation for this new intermediate cycle to form as right translated, printing a higher high.

We should see gold rally for 12  at least 17 weeks and challenge the all time highs.

Gold’s yearly cycle formed a swing high, so far, for month 6.

Since it is not likely that the yearly cycle has peaked gold may have set the yealy cycle trend line.

Miners

It looks as though the Miners daily cycle bottomed on Tuesday.

A swing low formed on Wednsday making Friday day 3 for the new daily cycle.

Notice how the previous daily cycle was embedded in a bull flag.

I’m believe that when the dollar’s daily cycle rolls over we will see the Miners break out of this bull flag.

Like gold, this was also week 25 for the Miners intermediate cycle.

The Miners printed a reversal weekly candle.
A break above 493 forms a weekly swing low and a break above 500 should confirm a new intermediate cycle.

The Miners printed its three year low in May and rallied for42%.
Now the Miners are consolidating that run.

The second half of the yearly cycle should see the miners challenge the all time highs.

The CCI

Monday also looks to be a daily cycle low for the CCI

Tuesday, day 1, saw the CCI charged out of the daily cycle low forming a swing low and breaching the accelerated (red) declining  cyce trend line.  

This suggests that new daily cycle.

This past week was week 23 for the intermediate cycle.
Like gold and the Miners, the CCI is in the timing band to print a low and a reversal candle has been left behind on the weekly chart.

A break above 565 forms a weekly swing low and a break above 570 should confirm a new intermediate cycle.

The CCI had a 19% run emerging out of it’s three year low.
We see a mini bull flag has formed at month 5 as the CCI is consolidating its run.  
The new daily and intermediate cycle suggest an upside breakout of the bull flag.

Bonds

The daily bond cycle has not been pretty over the past few months.

We see that it is currently day 14 as bonds printed a narrow range higher high on Friday.

A break below 125 will form a daily swing high and likely usher in a daily cycle decline.

This week was week 8 for the intermediate bond cycle.
If the yearly bond cycle is still in decline then we can expect the weekly cycle to peak soon.

The previous yearly cycle low printed in March.
The yearly cycle peaked at 4 months and now we are currently at month 8

So far the yearly cycle low is September at month  6.

A six month yearly cycle low is too early, so bonds are quite likely be setting the declining cycle trend line.

(Editor’s note — there is a misspelling on the yearly bond chart.  It should say “declining”.)