I have been meaning to review the big picture for the dollar.
Let’s begin by looking at over 40 years on the dollar chart.
What we notice immediately are the peaks in 1985 and 2002.
Upon closer examination, we see that the dollar has definable cycles.
The biggest cycle is what I term the 15 year super cycle.
Each super cycle is defined by a 15 year low on either side along with a cycle peak.
The 15 year lows are the lowest points in the 15 year cycle.
Embedded with in each 15 year super cycle are 5 three year cycles.
In both super cycles the first two 3 year cycles and at least part of the third 3 year cycle were very bullish as the super cycle rallied into its 15 year cycle peak.
The first 15 year super cycle peaked after 74 months and sold off for 92 months.
The Second 15 year super cycle peaked after 104 months and sold off for 86 months.
Please notice below that the embedded three year cycles formed higher highs and higher lows until the 15 year cycle peak.
Then the embedded three year cycles formed lower highs and lower lows into the 15 year cycle low.
The first 70 – 100 months of the super cycle is wildly bullish as the dollar continues to make higher 3 year cycle highs, with the first 3 year cycle in the new super cycle printing a higher 3 three year high over the concluding super cycle 3 year cycle.
That is not happening in the current super cycle.
The last 15 year super cycle low printed in March 2008.
As the dollar rallied out of the March 2008 super cycle low Bernanke dropped the hammer on the dollar in the form of QE1 in March 2009 and once again in the form of QE 2 in June 2010.
The first three year cycle of the previous super cycles printed a higher three year highs
The dollar is currently 56 months in the new super cycle and the dollar has failed to print a higher 3 year cycle high so far.
The current yearly cycle is in decline.
The dollar is right up against the declining yearly cycle trend line.
A rejection by the declining trend line will likely send the dollar into a failed yearly cycle.
A break below 78.09 confirms a failed yearly cycle.
The current intermediate cycle on week 8.
The average intermediate dollar cycle runs about 20 weeks.
If the current weekly cycle runs its normal course, that will take the dollar out about three more months — to about February.
That is when I expect the current yearly cycle to print its yearly low.
With gold Looking to print week one of a new intermediate cycle this week, a twelve week rally would take it to about February …
Cycle Trading 
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