Cycle Trading

Gold

Friday was day 6 for gold’s daily cycle.

Gold bugs remain frustrated due to the lack of positive traction for the yellow metal.
Gold may likely test the daily cycle low.
We saw gold make several tests of the DCL during the last daily cycle.
Ultimately I think that we will need to wait for the next intermediate cycle before gold makes any solid gains.

This was week 7 for gold’s weekly cycle.

A declining trend line is pinning down gold as gold has been consolidating the massive run up in the fall of 2011.
So far this consolidation has lasted 10 months.
I believe that the coiling that we are witnessing on the weekly chart is signaling a trend change is near.

This coiling reminds me of the coiling we saw on the dollar chart after it printed its three year low.

The following the dollar’s three year low was 17 weeks of sideways action consolidating the extended decline.
The final 8 weeks saw the dollar coil before springing out to the current rally.

Are we witnessing gold duplicating a similar pattern ?

May currently is labeled as the yearly cycle low, making July month 2.
Should July break below May’s low, then I would consider relabeling December as a yearly low and then July could be a candidate as a 7 month yearly low.

The Miners

Friday was day 5 for the Miner’s daily cycle.
The Miners closed lower for two straight days and now we will need to watch the 407 level.

A break below the 407 level would mean a failed daily cycle.
Should the Miners find their footing and shoot higher, then this will establish the daily cycle trend line.

The intermediate cycle trend line has been established.

At week 7 the Miners are nearing a point that will determine if this cycle will resolve as right translated or left translated.

A break below the week 6 pivot (the recent dcl) of 407 would signal an intermediate cycle in decline.

May was very likely the yearly and three year low for the Miners.
A swing low printed and now the Miners need to show some follow through.
A break above the declining monthly trend line would provide that follow through.

The CRB

The CRB exploded out of its recent daily cycle low gaining over 10% in the first 8 days.

Day 9 formed a swing high.
It is reasonable to expect some consolidation after such a strong thrust out of the intermediate cycle low.

The weekly cycle shows that the CRB pierced the declining cycle trend line.

That confirms a new intermediate cycle for the CRB.
After a three year cycle, seeing the CRB trade sideways consolidating the sell off will likely happen before the CRB launches into a more aggressive rally.

The CRB has printed a monthly swing low.
June was month 40 of the three year cycle and July is likely month 1 of the new three year cycle.

A break above the red declining trend line confirms a new three year cycle.

Bonds

Friday was day 11 for the daily cycle.

The current daily cycle features a day 6 peak and a break of the daily cycle trend line at day 7.

IF TLT sets a new daily cycle high, then I will need to reset the daily cycle trend line.
However if a swing high forms, that will likely lead to a decline into a daily cycle low.

The weekly chart for TLT features a week 10 peak.

Week 13 is the current cycle low.
Week 14 did (marginally) form a swing low.
The big picture is that TLT is consolidating the rally from March.
A break of this consolidation will define the weekly cycle low.

The yearly cycle stands at month 4 with a month 3 peak.

A break below 124 forms a monthly swing high.
So a downside break of the weekly consolidation will lead to an intermediate cycle sell off and that could lead to a decline into a yearly cycle low.

Now I will like to unveil the new and improved Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.