Clues …

June 26, 2012

Is the dollar daily cycle giving out clues that it may roll over soon?

Recall that this is the 5 th daily cycle of the current intermediate cycle.
And that the expectation is for this to be a failed, left translated daily cycle that should peak by day 12, probably by day 8.

Today’s candle was an outside, reversal topping candle, which could signal a change.
The other clue that is congruent with our cycle framework is the Schaff Trend Cycle did not “buy” this new daily cycle.

The new daily cycle is 5 days old and the STC has not risen above the 30 line.

The I believe that the STC signaling that the trend is still lower (into an intermediate cycle low) and a brief rally is not enough to make the Schaff Trend Cycle react.

Since the weekly cycle peaked on week 13, I do not believe that we will see this intermediate cycle form a failed, left, translated intermediate cycle.

A failed intermediate cycle is a requirement for the dollar to decline into its three year cycle low.

The dollar currently sits on month 13 of the three year cycle.
Now if the dollar does rollover soon and finds its daily and intermediate cycle low in another 3 – 4 weeks, that takes us into July.
Say the next intermediate cycle is the one that will form as left translated and peaks at week 8, that takes us to September early October which is a very bullish time for gold.

This dovetails with something trondtveten observed developing on the long term dollar chart. He observed a trendline from its top in the end of 2005 via the 2009 and 2010 tops, this line may be touched again at around dx87..

So I looked at it and then backed it out to 6/1989.

So if there is one more intermediate cycle that forms as left translated, after the current daily cycle plays out, there is a possibility that it peaks at this trend line.

Here is one more clue that the dollar’s daily cycle may have topped.

The CRB may be sniffing out a dollar top and may have printed a daily cycle low on Monday and Tuesday may have been day 1.

So we will need to keep our eye on the dollar

7 responses to “Clues …”

Rob L

June 26, 2012

Thanks for the report, LM.

Reply
Jack Dog

June 27, 2012

Likesmoney,
Thanks for the report. Like to see some form of follow through this week.
Jack Dog

Reply
trondtveten

June 27, 2012

LM, thx! By backtracking the trend back to 1989 a smooth (with 1 exeption 🙂 price channel emerges. The weekly macd since 2008 too displays an even down-trendline with already 4 touches, possibly a break up on the next attempt. The $ is often seasonally weak around the June-July shift, fitting your present cycle analysis. However when $ crashed at these times in 2010, gold and silver broke down simultaneously. Only the other commodities like agri and copper benefitted + the stockmarket. The PM’s joined only several weeks later. This might be about to happen again.
Do you think that an intermediate top in the dollar might coincide with the yearly low in stocks this autumn or winter? -Or even a 4 year low? But if a pronounced 4 year low in the stockmarket is coming, isn’t it inconceiveable that the commodities have already bottomed?

A BRIC-crisis similar to the 1997 asian crisis may be in the cards. At that time no one believed the ‘tigers’ could be severly affected, but that’s just what happened. The breakdown of the Indian rupi similar to the Thai Bath crash primo 1997?. The break out from similar IHS formations in $ now and then resembles. Simultaneously the arab spring might spread to China. Morally a good thing, but for economics and commodities a temporary disaster.

Reply
ALEX

June 27, 2012

THX LM (AND TRONDTVETEN)

Great report as usual, and raises many questions as Trond has asked .

ALEX

Reply
Hammerman

June 27, 2012

Thanks for your insights.

Note : I have not heard you mention the possibility of an 18 month cycle that IMO exists in the USD and seems to me to be the most consistant cycle and possibly the best prediction of where we are headed in the next few months. I like the 18 month cycle better than an annual cycle and obviously two 18 months make a 3 yr cycle and three 6 month cycles make an 18. If you have referred to it or if you call it something else, then my apologies.

Assuming that May 2012 low was the beginning of this current 18 month cycle, then possibly month 13 was the top and we are currently in month 14 of 18. This would place the next 18 month cycle low in the Oct 2012 time frame which matches with your Sept/Oct USD low notation above.

Reply
1. Hammerman
  
  June 27, 2012
  
  Meant to say May 4, 2011 above
  Prior dates Nov 25th 2009 (17.3 mo) , Mar 17, 2008 (20.2 mo).
  
  Reply
2. likesmoneystudies
  
  June 27, 2012
  
  Hammerman,
  
  Going back 30 plus years I have been able to identify:
  
  A 15 year supercycle
  
  Three year — monthly cycles
  
  Yearly cycles
  
  Intermediate (weekly) cycles.
  
  I have not been able to consistently identify an 18 month cycle that I would feel confidant to add to my cycle analysis.
  
  Reply