Commodity Surge …

June 25, 2012

Gold printed a swing low on Monday

This follows a gold daily cycle that peaked on day 15 and printed a reversal on Friday, which was day 27.

With gold being this deep in the timing band it is very likely that Monday was day one of the new daily cycle.

Today was a good day for commodities in general.

Corn was up 6.77%, wheat up 7.58 %, oats up 6.09%,
swing lows were formed in silver , copper, platinum, oil, as well as gold.

The CRB was up 1.27% today. it looks like the CRB printed a reversal .

Today was day 16 for the CRB daily cycle.

With some follow through on Tuesday it appears that the CRB will form a swing low.

This is all despite that fact that the dollar rose again today.

Monday was day four for the dollar’s daily cycle

This is the fifth daily cycle coming from the 2/29 intermediate cycle low.
There has not been a failed daily cycle yet.
My expectation is that this is the terminal daily cycle and therefore should conclude as left translated and break below the previous daily cycle low.

Left translated daily cycles peak before the 12 day and usually before day 8.

Perhaps the reversals seen in the commodities are sniffing out a top to the dollar daily cycle.

Conspicuous by its absence is oil.

Yes, as mentioned earlier Oil did print a swing low.

Oil will need to break above the declining trend line to officially join the party.

But when it does, it looks like commodities will be ready for another bullish leg up.

4 responses to “Commodity Surge …”

Jack Dog

June 25, 2012

Likesmoney,
From your past experience, when the CRB does start a new tren upwards and OIL does follow, would you expect that would be a cause for Ben to use a form of QE along with or without TWIST to knock Oil back down. This is the election year.
Thanks, Jack Dog

Reply
ALEX

June 25, 2012

My favorite line was “…This is all despite that fact that the dollar rose again today.”. I was saying that this morning, to convince me that adding to my position in NUGT was not a bad thing, esp on Day 27. : ] Tomorrow should tell the real story .

Thx LM

Reply
trondtveten

June 26, 2012

LM, isn’t it interesting that the $ just backtested your multi year declining trendline (that it had broken above) during the recent low? And if one draws a trendline from its top in the end of 2005 via the 2009 and 2010 tops, this line may be touched again at around dx87..

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1. likesmoneystudies
  
  June 26, 2012
  
  trontventen,
  
  Good observation, it certainly does show the backtesting the trend line.
  And I see what you are saying about a trend line drawn off the tops.
  
  Actually it extends back to 1989.
  
  Your observation dovetails into what I see happening in the dollar three year cycle.
  
  The dollar will need to rollover into a three year low at some point.
  
  A failed intermediate cycle would be the requirement needed to begin the decline.
  
  This current intermediate cycle will likely not fail, therefore the DX will need one more intermediate cycle, one that fails.
  
  Enter your observation of the trend line along the 2005, 2009, 2010 tops.
  
  This next intermediate cycle could peak there and then fail.
  
  Reply