The dollar had a big reversal today and you may be wonder if this heralds a new daily cycle.
Upon closer inspection we see that the dollar never broke the daily cycle trend line just tested it.
If you notice the cycle peak in January and compare it to the current dollar action I believe that you will agree that the dollar appears to be topping out.
Despite the dollar’s big reversal today, the Miners held up well.
They managed to print a higher high and a higher low.
Now I want to take a closer look at the current cycle low for the Miners.
Let’s start off by looking at two charts.
At first blush, they look pretty similar.
Upon closer inspection you we notice that the first is the HUI as it declined into its 3 year low in 2008.
The second is the HUI currently.
Now a second look at the 2008 chart
The decline into the 2008 cycle low found temporary support at the 200 level before printing the final low at 150.
A swing low was formed and then the HUI ran into resistance at the 200 level.
At this point in 2008:
— The HUI was down 17 out of the past 20 days
— There was not confirmation of a new daily cycle by a break of the declining trend line
— There was a question if it could break above the 200 level.
Let’s see what happened next …
Now a closer look at the current chart
The decline into the current cycle low found temporary support at the 420 level before printing the final low at 372.73.
A swing low was formed and then the HUI ran into resistance just below 420 level.
At this point currently:
— The HUI was down 21 out of the past 31 days
— There was not confirmation of a new daily cycle by a break of the declining trend line
— There is a question if it will break above the 420 level.
But look at this …
While the HUI has stalled out at the declining weekly trend line, it does possess a weekly swing low in the timing band for a weekly swing low.
At 21 weeks, if this is not the cycle low, it can’t be long …
And look at the Bullish Percent Gold Miners Index
Despite the big dollar and the end of the day fade in the Miners, the BPGDM turned higher and is right at the trend line.
Here is a bonus chart of the Energy Sector Bullish Percent Index
Cycle Trading 
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