Dollar Approaching A Crossroads

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The dollar has enjoyed an historic rally, printing higher highs for 13 straight days.

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The dollar is extremely overbought, has become stretched above the 10 MA, and came within 1 cent of the recent high set on 1/16.

The dollar is also running into resistance at the 10 year declining trend line

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At day 12 at these overbought conditions, I just wonder if the dollar has enough energy to punch through.

Gold may not think so …

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Despite another higher high for the dollar, gold not only formed a swing low, but gold had a huge day printing a 2.04% gain and forming a very convincing swing low.

So, in spite of the fact that the dollar formed another higher high, gold rallied perhaps sniffing out a dollar top.
We still need to see gold break above the declining trend line before we can declare this a new daily cycle.

The Miners may be signaling some potential dollar weakness …

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The Miners also had a huge day, rallying for 4.44%
The Miners also printed a convincing swing low and threw in a trend line break for no extra charge.

(I believe that the big day on May 9th turns out to have set the declining cycle trend line)
With some follow through, I think we can label this a new daily cycle.

Equities did not share the enthusiasm experienced by gold and the Miners being down by 1.51%.

It is worth noting that the Miners and gold tend to bottom before the general market.

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Equities are deep within the timing band to print a daily cycle low.
I would not be surprised by a short range day piercing the 1300 level.
Such a day would ease the parameters needed to form a daily cycle low.
While today was a big day down for equities, the SPY managed to print 80.26 in Buying on Strength

In fact, over the past 12 trading days, the SPY printed 7 Buying on Weakness days totaling an impressive 771.18 in Buying on Weakness.

It may be wise to follow the Smart Money

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10 responses to “Dollar Approaching A Crossroads”

  1. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    is the shaff doing anything interesting?

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Jeff,

      The Schaff Trend Cycle is up in the nose bleed levels, 99.95.
      I find the STC interesting to look at around swings, as the STC helps to confirm the swing.

      I have not stopped by the TSI Trader this week, I’ll have to take a look.
      I am always interested in learning a little bit more — thanks.

      🙂

  2. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Likesmoney,
    Futures already have $ at 81.82. It just might keep on keeping on til it does pierce. Being around for some records can really be a looser.
    Jack Dog

  3. ALEX Avatar
    ALEX

    JACK DOG (and WIFE)

    try ADAM HAMILTON on your search mentioned last post. He is sharp with his research, perhaps he had that article.

    1. Jack Dog Avatar
      Jack Dog

      Likesmoney,
      Thanks, will try.
      Jack Dog

      1. ALEX Avatar
        ALEX

        You’re welcome, but dont call me Likesmoney—He’s in a Class all by himself : ]

  4. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    LM
    TSI trader has some interesting thoughts on C-Wave retracements. Not very interesting charts. I just thought you might gleen something from it.
    His point is that we just did not retrace enough for a D-wave. That lack of retracement can be offset by longer time of consolidation. is that true statement?( plauseable)

  5. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Likesmoney,

    Euro bounced right off the 2 1/2 year support +/- this morning at about the same time the $ hit 81.93. in the futures just after midnight. Gold & Silver acted very positive. Maybe today will be a ” U ” turn.

    Jack Dog

  6. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Alex,
    Don’t knock yourself to much, a lot of people have tremendous respect for your opinions. Thanks again for the lead, and Likesmoney sorry if I did.
    Jack Dog

  7. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Seems $ turned onto a oneway sreet and can’t find a rest stop, an exit, a stop sign, or a traffic light.. Where are the Bernanke Cops when you need one, dollar is out of control and the next stop is a mini crash.

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