Dollar Taking a Breather

May 16, 2012

Wednesday was day 11 for the dollar.
The dollar has printed 12 straight days up, which I have not seen before.
The dollar has not been this overbought since September 2008 when the dollar emerged from the previous three year low.

Currently, the dollar is getting stretched above the 10 day MA and needs at least a breather.

The CRB seems to be taking advantage of the dollar taking a breather.

The CRB posted its second straight daily gain despite the dollar posting gains as well.

The CRB may have printed a low on Monday, which was day 15. That is a bit early for a daily cycle low, but the previous 3 cycles ran 17, 16 & 16 respectively.

Notice how the CRB is snuggled right up against the declining trend line.
With a bit of strength, the CRB could print a trend line break and a swing low.
Unless the dollar rolls over, I would not expect much from the CRB here.
But it is certainly worth noting.

Getting back to the dollar.

It seems destined that the dollar is going to break through the declining trend line

Just remember, until it has, it hasn’t.

But if it does, it could be a game changer …

12 responses to “Dollar Taking a Breather”

jeff

May 16, 2012

the news said the dollar has not posted this many days up since 1973

Reply
adam noonan

May 16, 2012

test

Reply
1. jeff
  
  May 16, 2012
  
  you passed
  
  Reply
  1. Rob L
    
    May 17, 2012
    
    Barely. 😉
Jack Dog

May 16, 2012

Likesmoney,
First time in many days $ in the futures is DOWN. Maybe that sigh of relief is coming, AH!
Jack Dog

Reply
andy

May 17, 2012

Thanks LM for sharing your analysis.
On your dollar chart you misswrote oversold on the RSI indicator instead of overbought.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  May 17, 2012
  
  Andy,
  
  Thanks for catching that.
  
  I updated the chart.
  
  Reply
trondtveten

May 17, 2012

LM, just now it clearly punctuated that trendline, and at exactly the same instant the SP500 futures sold off sharply so seemed as if someting snapped. + the Euro is concurrently on the verge of breaking its 10 year uptrend. Clearly vibes from Greece’s impending leave of the euro zone. Could be messy, run on the local banks there etc… However gold is in the middle of this suddently jumping 10$. Maybe funds begin fleeing from Greece and Euro into the ‘Gold-currency’?

Still this could be a premature pop above the line that will reverse; alternatively the same will happen as a few days ago when the DX 80 pivot was surpassed then I mentioned – ‘resistance turns into support, so it presently rests briefly on its “new platform underneath..”

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ALEX

May 17, 2012

Thx for the report LM

I was looking at the Dollar on a weekly chart , along with the FXE on its’ weekly chart and it sure looks like a ‘game changer” . H&S on FXE , and the dollar has many positive factors too.
For now, $Gold held the $1523 area and currently is enjoying a nice bounce… 1 step at a time, right? And our bounce in Silver is coming just at the right time too

THX AGAIN
ALEX

Reply
Jack Dog

May 17, 2012

Likesmoney,

I am tired of playing this game, going to take my stuff and go home. What’s the next game we can play?

Looks like a dozen is in the bag, might even get a Bakers Dozen! ( That could really get tasty, oops mean nasty. ) Options expire tomorrow maybe that will take the air out from under the $. If not the high on Jan 13 th is just pennies away from being taken out.

When the $ does get a swing with the run on the banks in Europe going on will it last? Like Jeff said, ” …. don’t know if a swing can be trusted…. “. Maybe this swing in the $HUI & $CRB will hold, or it was a very short short rally.

Should be an interesting report tonight, looking forward to your insights.

Jack Dog

Reply
Jack Dog

May 17, 2012

Likesmoney,
You have seen this I know, but just to remind a few here the EURO is getting closer to breaking its two and a half year support. That happens then a flood gate is opened and Ben will more than likely have to change his pants, er I mean QE plans.
To many ifs, ands, and butts,
Jack Dog

Reply
1. Jeff
  
  May 17, 2012
  
  I did buy the swing
  I’m going see if it’s LT or RT and then it’s game on
  
  Reply