Shooting Star …

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The dollar is early in its daily cycle and the News out of Europe gave the dollar all the reasons for a bullish break out of its consolidation, but it didn’t.

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Despite these factors, the dollar was quite convincingly, rejected by the 80 level and printed a shooting star reversal candle.

The dollar just printed two back to back left translated daily cycles.

The previous daily cycle broke below the preceding daily cycle low, indicating an intermediate cycle decline has begun.

Now, with just a bit of weakness and the dollar will form a swing high.

Considering the weekly cycle peaked on week 2 and is currently on week 10, I think that a daily swing high here will likely mark the daily cycle peak and we can expect the dollar to reverse lower.

The dollar’s daily cycle averages 18 – 25 days from trough to trough, suggesting another 2 – 3 weeks of dollar downside.

Oil also looks like it printed a reversal

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Oil has plummeted over the past 4sections
Oil needs just a bit of strength to form a daily swing low.

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The weekly chart is in the timing for a low. Since oil printed a lower low this week, the earliest it can form a weekly swing low is next week.

Stocks look to also reverse its recent sell off.

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Monday was day 19
Equities reversed off the rising trend line.
If the dollar cycle has topped, then I expect to see a bullish follow through with equities.

With the dollar eyeing another 13 to 20 days to decline, that would bring equities right into the heart of their timing band to seek a low.

By the way, another confirming bullish signal is that I received a FAS buy signal today.

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Looks like we are setting up for another bullish leg up

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4 responses to “Shooting Star …”

  1. Marcos Avatar

    Hi LikesMoney, in your analysis you wait for another bull ride but with the elliot wave, it says that the april pivot (peak) was the top of the fifth wave, and since the start of april make the A wave… in the end of april we have the B wave and now we ir in C wave, so I expect a little sell-off to a good support @ 1.343. Then sideways…. we are just in may… go away for bull….. they say…

    Greets,

    Mark

  2. stockrocket Avatar
    stockrocket

    Yo!

    Im seeing dolla on only day 5 of new daily cycle with no current suggestion of being “left translated” no?

    In fact – as of this morning….now breaching weekly downward sloping trendline to the upside and again looking all bullish to me.

    At times – I think we all see what we want to see regardless of our immediate disiplines/skills…..as I am a bear – of course I want to see the dollar fly!

    And again coupled with firm fundamentals…..Greece just RENTERED the meatgrinder and has essencially said “no austerity”…so back to the drawing board there…as EU bond yields look to continue blowup here this a.m.

    We may get another pop here before late June but – these bloated levels in stocks will be left in the dust long into 2013 2014.

  3. trondtveten Avatar
    trondtveten

    Interesting reports!
    As regards patterns, most cycle guys adhere to triangles, but don’t use the HS pattern?. Still there are quite ugly head and shoulders in the 3 years charts of the CCI and $cdnx, where the necklines just now’s getting busted… http://scharts.co/KisXze http://scharts.co/KZzgat

  4. Stock Rocket Avatar
    Stock Rocket

    Hey LM! – Its Riser 300 from your other blog – in case you didnt recognize. Now using this ol WordPress I.D

    Go man go!

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