Part 3

May 6, 2012

Gold

I think the correct way to look at gold is to view it as being embedded in a larger consolidation pattern.

I did begin to view it that way last week, but I did not back it out far enough.

An upside break would confirm that Friday was day one of the new daily cycle.

The weekly chart mirrors the daily chart.
Gold is consolidating and an upside break out of consolidation confirms a new intermediate cycle.

The yearly cycle shows that gold has month 5 in progress.
If gold is still in a bull market, then the yearly cycle should not fail.

The Miners

The yearly cycle for the Miners has been in decline entering its 8 month.

A point of reference, the 2008 liquidation saw the Miners decline for 7 months.
Since May already printed a lower low, the earliest a swing low can form will be in June.

Last week was week 18 for the Miners
The weekly cycle timing band is 14 – 20 weeks,
so the Miners are right in the timing band to print a weekly cycle low.
A break above 449.05 prints that swing low.

Since the Miners continued to sell off last week, day 16 is probably not the daily cycle low.

A break above 432.18 by the HUI forms a swing low.
If the Miners also prints a trend line break then I will re-phase the low to day 24.
If the miners continue to sell of, then I will maintain the day 16 low label and view this as an extremely left translated daily cycle in progress.

Since the miners are in the timing band for an intermediate cycle low, a new daily cycle will likely start the new intermediate cycle.

7 responses to “Part 3”

Jack Dog

May 6, 2012

Likesmoney,

You have really posed a lot to comprehend. Looks like Europe will tell the tail of the tape, and watching where you step could be critical. This Euro election cycle and Ben is a crap shoot! Late this Sunday evening may give us a hint.

Thanks Again,
Jack Dog

P.S. Oil was a wipe out! Maybe a bounce next week, but from there …………….?

Reply
IheartMrs.Seaver

May 6, 2012

LM,
Amazing Weekend Report -obviously you worked your ass off. Your efforts do not go unrecognized.

Reply
YesLetsDiscuss

May 6, 2012

LM,

Great work – as always!

Since you are the only one who has studied the HUI cycles independently, I was wondering if you have any thoughts about their timing compared to the Gold cycles – for example, how the DCLs and ICLs line up with respect to each other.

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  May 6, 2012
  
  YesLetsDiscuss,
  
  I have compared the cycles.
  Gold and the HUi definitely have their own cycles.
  
  The HUI & Gold hit their yearly cycle lows in the same month 5 times out of the last 11 years.
  The hit their yearly cycle peaks on the same month 6 times over the same time frame.
  
  Reply
ALEX

May 6, 2012

THANKS LM

And if GOLD and MINERS BOTH head upward from here…I believe you would be marking the LOW as Friday in Gold, and Thursday for Miners.

I appreciate the work that went into this report and thx for keeping track of the $HUI cycles

Reply
likesmoneystudies

May 6, 2012

The shot right out to test the declining trend line tonight

Reply
stockrocket

May 6, 2012

Again guys………a solid understanding of the fundamentals “coupled” with some keen tech can really make a good trader ……..a great trader.

As posted/suggested prior…..the EU election implications “fundamentally” trump – or at least – put in question pure technical study……as we can´t possibly imagine EUR performance in the face of a socialist gov in France…let alone the revolt in Greece.

Now……consider that further QE is 100% out of the question in the U.S —– until this boat SINKS!…and then…EVEN THEN ….the result will likely be disasterous…as big money already knows the U.S cannot be saved through further printing/devaluation.

I dont think these levels in SP or DOW will be seen again….for many many many years to come if at all.

Reply