Cycle Trading

Is History Preparing to Repeat?

History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

Periods of sustained dollar weakness have frequently coincided with important advances in gold. The relationship is not automatic, but the current cycle developments make that historical comparison worth revisiting.

The Dollar Begins to Turn

The dollar rejected resistance near 103 and signaled a daily cycle decline following its day 25 daily cycle high.

The weekly chart also formed a bearish reversal, closing back below the 200 week MA.

A weekly swing high and close below the 10 week MA would signal an intermediate cycle decline. That confirmation remains outstanding.

Gold Begins to Respond

Gold confirmed its day 58 daily cycle low on Thursday with a daily swing low and close above the 10 day MA.

Gold also formed a weekly swing low, raising the possibility that a larger cycle bottom may be developing.

However, gold remains below its declining 10 week MA. The weekly recovery still needs additional confirmation.

A Historical Question

A sustained dollar decline can provide a tailwind for gold, but it does not guarantee a sustained gold advance. Gold must establish its own bullish cycle structure.

The current developments raise an interesting question: Are the dollar and gold approaching the kind of larger cycle alignment that has accompanied important gold advances in the past?

The evidence is beginning to develop, but the larger cycle signals remain conditional.

Our new subscriber Special Report, “The Dollar and Gold — Is History Preparing to Repeat?”, examines four historical periods when the relationship between these markets produced different outcomes. It then compares those examples with the developing daily, weekly, and monthly cycle structures.

The historical comparisons provide perspective. The subsequent price behavior will determine whether the current relationship becomes more significant.

Special Report — 6 Week Trial Subscription

This week I am offering a special 6 week trial subscription, along with the Special Report — The Dollar and Gold — Is History Preparing to Repeat? — for $15.

Your 6 week trial subscription gives you full access to the premium site, which includes:

1. The Weekend Report, usually posted Saturday mornings. It discusses dollar, stocks, gold, miners, oil, and bonds in terms of daily, weekly, and yearly cycles, including the LIKESMONEY Cycle Tracker.
2. The Mid-Week Update, posted Wednesdays, reviews the daily charts for the above asset classes.
3. The Weekend Update, covering the daily and weekly charts of BTC, DAX, Copper, NATGAS, and XLE.
4. Weekly updates of the Bullish Percentile Bingo.
5. Frequent updates of my proprietary Buy/Sell Indicators for GDX, FAS, FBTC, and XLE.

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an ongoing framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

Click here for the Special Report and trial subscription.