Pre-Summary
Bonds extended their multi-year decline to Month 36. Friday provided the first evidence that a turn may be developing.
In Are Bonds Setting a Bear Trap?, we were watching the 81.18 level to help determine whether the Month 19 low marked an early multi-year cycle low.
It didn’t. Bonds broke below 81.18 and continued lower. October is now Month 36, placing Bonds in their timing band for a multi-year cycle low. But that is not the only cycle approaching a potential low. Bonds are also in their timing bands for a Daily cycle low, Intermediate cycle low and Yearly cycle low.
The first turn has to begin somewhere. Bonds printed their lowest point on Thursday, Day 31, placing them deep in their timing band for a DCL. Friday formed a swing low.
Bonds remain stretched below the 10-day MA. A close above the 10-day MA would signal the Day 31 DCL. That would be the first step.
Cycle Alignment
Bonds: DCL, ICL, YCL and multi-year cycle low timing bands are aligned; Daily swing low formed.
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