Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

The Dollar printed its lowest point on Day 27 and formed a swing low earlier this week. Friday’s close above the 10-day MA provided the evidence needed to signal the daily cycle low.

The Dollar printed its lowest point on Day 27, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. The Dollar formed a swing low on Monday but spent most of the week crawling below the converging 10-day and 200-day MAs. That changed on Friday when the Dollar closed above both moving averages. The close above the 10-day MA provides the evidence needed to label Day 27 as the DCL.

The Dollar is now on Day 5 of a new daily cycle. The bullish TSI zero-line crossover supports the developing move, but the Dollar remains in a daily downtrend. A close above the upper daily cycle band would signal a daily trend change.

Current Framework

Trend: Daily downtrend
Cycle: Day 27 DCL signaled; Day 5 of new daily cycle
Next Trigger: Close above upper daily cycle band signals daily trend change