Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

The Dollar signaled Day 17 as an early DCL on Wednesday, but the rally failed to produce bullish follow-through. Friday’s close back below the 10-day MA now calls that DCL into question.

The Dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10-day MA on Wednesday, signaling Day 17 as an early Daily Cycle Low. But the market continued to provide new evidence.

The Dollar was unable to deliver bullish follow-through. It closed lower on Thursday, then formed a swing high and closed back below the 10-day MA on Friday. That calls into question whether Day 17 marked the DCL.

The Dollar remains in a daily downtrend. Forming a swing high and closing back below the 10-day MA indicates a continuation of that downtrend and signals a cycle band sell signal. A break below the Day 17 low of 99.40 will extend the daily cycle decline.

Current Framework

Trend: Daily downtrend.

Cycle: Day 17 signaled as an early DCL, but Friday’s reversal calls that interpretation into question.

Next Trigger: A break below 99.40 extends the daily cycle decline.