Cycle Trading

Precious metals have signaled new intermediate cycles and the evidence is increasingly consistent with the advancing phase of new yearly cycles.

Gold and the Miners have both broken bullishly out of consolidation and are forming right-translated daily cycles. However, both have also become stretched on the daily and weekly timeframes. For investors without a position, that creates a decision: chase the advance or wait for a pullback? Neither choice is without risk.

Chasing establishes a position, but comes with the risk of having to weather a potential drawdown as the market works off its stretched condition.

Waiting for a pullback may provide a better entry, but then requires correctly timing that pullback — with the risk that the market does not provide the entry you are waiting for.

This is where understanding cycle structure becomes important.

Understanding the Cycle Structure

A yearly cycle is normally comprised of 2–3 intermediate cycles, with each intermediate cycle comprised of 2–4 daily cycles.

The first intermediate cycle of a new yearly cycle should right translate, typically peaking after week 10 and often beyond week 15.

Within that first intermediate cycle, each daily cycle should form a higher daily cycle low as the advance progresses.

Eventually, a daily cycle will fail. That failed daily cycle signals that the intermediate cycle decline is underway.

This structure does not tell an investor whether to chase or wait.

Instead, it provides a framework for understanding the trade-off. An investor who establishes a position after an extended advance accepts the possibility of having to weather the next daily cycle decline. An investor who waits accepts a different risk — that the pullback may be shallow, difficult to time, or may not provide the entry they are waiting for.

Cycle analysis does not make that decision for the investor. It provides the structure needed to make an informed decision.

Following the Cycle Structure

In the Weekend Report, we follow this cycle structure across the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes for Gold, Miners, Stocks, the Dollar, Oil, and Bonds.

The goal is not to predict every move or tell subscribers what decision to make. The goal is to identify the trend, cycle structure, timing, and key levels so subscribers can make those decisions for themselves.

If you would like to follow the cycle framework in real time, you can try the subscriber service with a one-month trial subscription for $15.

Subscribers receive ongoing cycle analysis designed to help them understand where markets are within their daily, intermediate, and yearly cycles.

Each report provides:

• Multi-timeframe cycle analysis across Daily, Weekly, and Monthly charts.
• Key levels and triggers that signal changes in cycle and trend structure.
• Macro coverage of Stocks, Gold, Miners, the Dollar, Oil, Bonds, and other key markets.
• Cycle Alignment to put the different timeframes into perspective.
• Regular updates that follow the market as the cycle structure develops.

The goal is simple: provide the structure and evidence so you can make your own investment decisions.

Try the subscriber service with a one-month trial subscription.