Cycle Trading

Pre-Summary

The Miners are showing improving daily cycle structure, but one important hurdle still remains before the daily trend changes.

The Miners spent the past several sessions consolidating along the 10-day MA and below resistance at the 76.50 level. Tuesday’s breakout carried the Miners to a new daily high, improving the structure of the current daily cycle.

The new high on Day 12 shifts the odds toward a right-translated daily cycle, improving the outlook for the current advance. However, the Miners are now becoming stretched above the 10-day MA as they approach resistance at the 50-day MA. Some consolidation is likely, which would allow the 10-day MA time to catch up to price.

While the daily cycle continues to improve, the daily trend has not yet changed. The Miners remain in a daily downtrend until they close above the upper daily cycle band. That signal would end the daily downtrend and begin a new daily uptrend.

Current Framework

Trend: Daily downtrend.

Cycle: Improving. The new high on Day 12 favors a right-translated daily cycle.

Next Trigger: A close above the upper daily cycle band signals a new daily uptrend.